Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure

Korean Society of Ecology and Infrastructure Engineering (응용생태공학회)
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Prediction of Shift in Fish Distributions in the Geum River Watershed under Climate Change

기후변화에 따른 금강 유역의 어류 종분포 변화 예측

  • Bae, Eunhye (Division of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Jung, Jinho (Division of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University)
  • 배은혜 (고려대학교 환경생태공학과) ;
  • 정진호 (고려대학교 환경생태공학과)
  • Received : 2015.08.04
  • Accepted : 2015.08.31
  • Published : 2015.09.30
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Abstract

Impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems range from changes in physiological processes of aquatic organisms to species distribution. In this study, MaxEnt that has high prediction power without nonoccurrence data was used to simulate fish distribution changes in the Geum river watershed according to climate change. The fish distribution in 2050 and 2100 was predicted with RCP 8.5 climate change scenario using fish occurrence data (a total of 47 species, including 17 endemic species) from 2007 to 2009 at 134 survey points and 9 environmental variables (monthly lowest, highest and average air temperature, monthly precipitation, monthly lowest, highest and average water temperature, altitude and slope). The fitness of MaxEnt modeling was successful with the area under the relative operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.798, and environmental variables that showed a high level of prediction were as follows: altitude, monthly average precipitation and monthly lowest water temperature. As climate change proceeds until 2100, the probability of occurrence for Odontobutis interrupta and Acheilognathus yamatsuatea (endemic species) decreases whereas the probability of occurrence for Microphysogobio yaluensis and Lepomis macrochirus (exotic species) increases. In particular, five fish species (Gnathopogon strigatus, Misgurnus mizolepis, Erythroculter erythropterus, A. yamatsuatea and A. koreensis) were expected to become extinct in the Geum river watershed in 2100. In addition, the species rich area was expected to move to the northern part of the Geum river watershed. These findings suggest that water temperature increase caused by climate change may disturb the aquatic ecosystem of Geum river watershed significantly.

기후변화에 의한 수생태계의 영향은 수생생물의 생리작용의 변화에서부터 종분포에 이르기까지 광범위할 것으로 예상된다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 금강유역의 어류 종분포를 예측하기 위하여 비출현 정보를 요구하지 않고도 좋은 예측력을 가지고 있는 MaxEnt 모형을 활용하였다. 금강유역 134개 지점의 2007년부터 2009년까지 어류 출현 자료 (고유종 17종 포함 총 47종)와 9개의 환경인자 (월별 최저기온, 최고기온, 평균기온, 강수량, 최저수온, 최고수온, 평균수온, 고도, 경사)를 사용하여, RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오에 따라 2050년과 2100년의 어류 종분포를 예측하였다. MaxEnt 모형은 평균 0.798의 적절한 모형적합도를 보여 주었으며, 종분포 예측에 기여도가 높은 환경인자는 고도, 강수량, 최저수온 순이었다. 기후변화가 진행됨에 따라 얼룩동사리와 줄납자루와 같은 고유종의 출현확률은 감소한 반면, 배스와 블루길과 같은 외래종의 출현확률은 증가하였다. 특히 2100년에는 5종 (줄몰개, 미꾸라지, 강준치, 줄납자루, 칼납자루)의 어류가 금강유역에서 더 이상 서식하지 못하는 것으로 예측되었다. 그리고 기후변화에 따라 종풍부도가 높은 지역이 금강유역 내에서 북상하는 것으로 예측되었다. 이러한 결과는 기후변화로 인한 수온 상승이 금강유역 수생태계의 교란을 심화시킬 수 있다는 것을 의미한다.

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