Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society

The Korean Data and Information Science Society (한국데이터정보과학회)
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Comprehensive evaluation of baseball player's offensive ability by use of simulation

시뮬레이션을 통한 프로야구 타자들의 공격능력의 종합적인 평가

  • Kim, Nam Ki (Department of Industrial Engineering, Chonnam National University) ;
  • Kim, Sun Ho (Department of Industrial Engineering, Chonnam National University)
  • 김남기 (전남대학교 산업공학과) ;
  • 김선호 (전남대학교 산업공학과)
  • Received : 2015.05.29
  • Accepted : 2015.06.30
  • Published : 2015.07.31
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Abstract

This research is to comprehensively evaluate offensive abilities of baseball players who are expected to produce as many runs as possible by their hitting and running. To this end, we establish a simulation program to obtain the so-called scoring index of an individual player. The scoring index of a player is defined as an expected number of runs scored by an imaginary team that is composed of nine copies of the player. As a simulation input, we use 2014 season data of Korean pro-baseball. As a result, we present the scoring indices of top 10 players, 9 Korean pro-baseball teams, and overall 2014 season. The scoring index can serve as a comprehensive evaluation of offensive ability of a player or a team, selection of players for a (national) team or for a starting line-up, estimation of player's worth, and so on.

본 연구에서는 시뮬레이션을 활용하여 타자의 공격능력, 즉 타자로서의 타격능력과 주자로서의 주루능력을 포괄하는 득점생산능력을 종합적으로 평가한다. 이를 위하여, 각 타자의 스코어링 인덱스를 구하는데, 여기서 스코어링 인덱스란 한 팀의 모든 타자가 동일한, 한 선수로만으로 구성되었을 때, 기대되는 경기당 득점이다. 시뮬레이션 입력으로는 2014시즌 한국 프로야구 데이터를 사용하였는데, 주요 출력결과로서 상위 10명의 타자들의 스코어링 인덱스 및 9개 구단과 2014시즌 한국 프로야구의 스코어링 인덱스를 제시한다. 이렇게 구한 스코어링 인덱스는 타자 및 팀의 공격능력의 종합적인 평가뿐만 아니라, 대표선수 및 선발타자의 선정, 선수들의 연봉의 책정 등에도 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

Keywords

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