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홍수 위험도 척도 및 예측모형 연구

Study on Measurement of Flood Risk and Forecasting Model

  • 권세혁 (한남대학교 경상대학 비즈니스통계학과) ;
  • 오현승 (한남대학교 공과대학 산업경영공학과)
  • Kwon, S.H. (Department of Statistics, Hannam University) ;
  • Oh, H.S. (Department of Industrial and Management Engineering, Hannam University)
  • 투고 : 2015.02.03
  • 심사 : 2015.02.23
  • 발행 : 2015.03.31

초록

There have been various studies on measurements of flood risk and forecasting models. For river and dam region, PDF and FVI has been proposed for measurement of flood risk and regression models have been applied for forecasting model. For Bo region unlikely river or dam region, flood risk would unexpectedly increase due to outgoing water to keep water amount under the designated risk level even the drain system could hardly manage the water amount. GFI and general linear model was proposed for flood risk measurement and forecasting model. In this paper, FVI with the consideration of duration on GFI was proposed for flood risk measurement at Bo region. General linear model was applied to the empirical data from Bo region of Nadong river to derive the forecasting model of FVI at three different values of Base High Level, 2m, 2.5m and 3m. The significant predictor variables on the target variable, FVI were as follows: ground water level based on sea level with negative effect, difference between ground altitude of ground water and river level with negative effect, and difference between ground water level and river level after Bo water being filled with positive sign for quantitative variables. And for qualitative variable, effective soil depth and ground soil type were significant for FVI.

키워드

참고문헌

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