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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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A Prediction of Northeast Asian Summer Precipitation Using Teleconnection

원격상관을 이용한 북동아시아 여름철 강수량 예측

  • Lee, Kang-Jin (Physical Oceanography Division, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology) ;
  • Kwon, MinHo (Physical Oceanography Division, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology)
  • 이강진 (한국해양과학기술원 물리연구본부) ;
  • 권민호 (한국해양과학기술원 물리연구본부)
  • Received : 2014.12.03
  • Accepted : 2014.12.26
  • Published : 2015.03.31
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Abstract

Even though state-of-the-art general circulation models is improved step by step, the seasonal predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon still remains poor. In contrast, the seasonal predictability of western North Pacific and Indian monsoon region using dynamic models is relatively high. This study builds canonical correlation analysis model for seasonal prediction using wind fields over western North Pacific and Indian Ocean from the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5), and then assesses the predictability of so-called hybrid model. In addition, we suggest improvement method for forecast skill by introducing the lagged ensemble technique.

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References

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  1. Accuracy of Short-Term Ocean Prediction and the Effect of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on KMA Global Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea5) During the Development of Ocean Stratification vol.26, pp.4, 2016, https://doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.4.599
  2. A Prediction of Precipitation Over East Asia for June Using Simultaneous and Lagged Teleconnection vol.26, pp.4, 2016, https://doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.4.711