Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society

The Korean Data and Information Science Society (한국데이터정보과학회)
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Small area estimations for disease mapping by using spatial model

질병지도 작성을 위해 공간모형을 이용한 소지역 추정

  • An, Daeseong (Department of Statistics, Pukyong National University) ;
  • Han, Junhee (Research and Statistical Support, Pusan National University Yangsan Hospital) ;
  • Yoon, Taeho (Department of Occupational and Preventive Medicine, Pusan National University School of Medicine) ;
  • Kim, Changhoon (Department of Occupational and Preventive Medicine, Pusan National University School of Medicine) ;
  • Noh, Maengseok (Department of Statistics, Pukyong National University)
  • 안대성 (부경대학교 통계학과) ;
  • 한준희 (양산부산대학교 병원) ;
  • 윤태호 (부산대학교 의과전문대학원) ;
  • 김창훈 (부산대학교 의과전문대학원) ;
  • 노맹석 (부경대학교 통계학과)
  • Received : 2014.11.17
  • Accepted : 2014.12.30
  • Published : 2015.01.31
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Abstract

SMRs (standardized mortality rates) for major diseases, accidents, cancer are considered in small areas of administrative units such as Eup/Myeon/Dong from years 2005 to 2008. Due to small sample issue in small areas, the precision of directly estimated crude SMR for each area can be low. In this study, we consider the HGLM (hierarchical generalized linear model) with MRF (Markov random field) to account for the spatial correlations among the small areas. The effects of covariates for cause of mortality by Dongs in Seoul and disease maps based on the estimated SMR are presented. The results suggest how we analyze and interpret the difference in mortalities by small areas such as Dongs by revealing the spatial patterns.

행정구역상 읍/면/동 단위의 소지역 (small area)별로 질병위험의 차이에 대한 분석을 위해, 2005년 기준 서울 행정동을 기준으로 2005년부터 2008년까지 질병, 사고, 암 사망자료에 대한 표준화 사망률 (SMR; standardized mortality rate)을 고려하였다. 소지역 단위로 질병사망률을 직접 추정하는 것은 소지역 내 표본수가 작아, 개발 소지역 단위에서의 직접 계산된 SMR은 그 추정치의 정도 (precision) 확보가 어려운 문제점이 발생한다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 각 소지역간 효과 추정을 위해 공간적 상관성 (spatial correlation)을 가지는 다단계 일반화 선형모형 (HGLM; hierarchical generalized linear models)을 고려하였다. 이를 통해, 서울지역 동별 주요 사망원인에 따른 공변량의 효과 및 추정된 SMR을 근거로 질병지도 결과를 제시하였다.

Keywords

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