Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Development of Radar Tracking Technique for the Short -Term Rainfall Field Forecasting-

초단기 강우예측을 위한 기상레이더 강우장 추적기법 개발

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University) ;
  • Lee, Dong-Ryul (Korea Institute of Construction Technology, Water Resources Research Division) ;
  • Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
  • 김태정 (전북대학교 토목공학과, 방재연구센터) ;
  • 이동률 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원.하천연구소) ;
  • 권현한 (전북대학교 토목공학과, 방재연구센터)
  • Received : 2015.10.06
  • Accepted : 2015.10.16
  • Published : 2015.12.31
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Abstract

Weather radar rainfall data has been recognized for making valuable contributions to short-term flood forecasting and management over the past decades. There are several advantages to better monitoring rainfall in ungauged area compared to ground-based rain gauges with which spatial patterns of the rainfall are not effectively identified. Hence, this study aims to develop a new scheme to forecast spatio-temporal rainfall field. The proposed model was based on an advection scheme to track wind patterns and velocity. The results showd a promising forecasting skill with quantitative and qualitative measures. It was confirmed that the forecasted rainfall may be effectively used an input data for a distributed hydrological model.

초단기 홍수예보를 위한 주요자료로서 최근 기상레이더의 중요성이 크게 부각되고 있다. 기상레이더는 넓은 지역에 걸쳐 실시간으로 강우현상 감시가 가능하며 지상우량계로는 파악이 불가능한 미계측유역을 통과하는 강우장의 이동 및 변화 파악이 가능한 장점이 있다. 본 연구는 강우장의 공간적 분포와 레이더 강우세포를 추적하는 강우장 예측 해석방안을 수립하였다. 이를 위해 강우장의 공간적인 이동을 고려하기 위해 강우장의 바람장 이류(advection) 패턴을 추출하여 각 강우세포가 가지는 이동방향 및 속도를 고려한 강우장 추적기법을 통하여 강우장을 예측하였다. 본 연구를 통하여 개발된 기상레이더 강우장 상관분석 기법을 활용한 초단기강우예측 결과는 집중호우시 홍수 예 경보를 위한 수문모형의 입력자료로 활용이 가능할 것으로 사료된다.

Keywords

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