DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Optimal Investment Strategy for Research and Development Considering Dynamic Complexity

동태적 복잡성을 고려한 최적의 연구개발 투자 전략

  • Son, Jiyoon (Department of Business Administration, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Hyun Jung (Department of Business Administration, Sangji Youngseo College) ;
  • Kim, Soo Wook (Department of Business Administration, Seoul National University)
  • Received : 2015.09.21
  • Accepted : 2015.11.02
  • Published : 2015.11.30

Abstract

Recently, interest in research and development (R&D) investment decisions have increased among Korean domestic enterprises. However, existing R&D investment studies only focused on government R&D investment policies while only a few studies investigated firm level R&D investment. Prior literatures also overlooked the feedback loop between R&D investment and firm performance. Therefore, this paper identifies a system dynamics model for R&D investment decision making in domestic electronics firms. The conceptual model is derived from R&D investment-related theories found in bodies of literature on company performance, enterprise activity, and market maturity. This study investigates the dynamic feedback between R&D activities and sales using the system dynamics model. In other words, the system dynamics model is used to explain the change in the closed feedback circulation structure in R&D investment activities including technology development, production process, and marketing that subsequently result in sales increase and re-investment into R&D from the generated revenues. There are two major results. First, a similar ratio of investment on technology development and production process derives the higher company sales. Second, regardless of market maturity, marketing investment ratio positively affects sales and R&D budget growth. This study provides a system dynamics model to find the optimal ratio for R&D investment and suggests managerial strategic implications on electronic firm R&D investment decision making under market maturity condition.

Keywords

References

  1. 과학기술정책연구원, 기술혁신조사, 2004.
  2. 김도훈, 문태훈, 김동환, 시스템 다이내믹스, 대영문화사, 1999.
  3. 김동환, 안승구, "국가 R&D 투자 배분에 관한 시스템 다이내믹스 모델링", 한국 시스템 다이내믹스 연구, 제12권, 제2호(2011), pp.153-176.
  4. 김석현, 조성표, 성요헌, 최윤석, 정재용, 기업연구개발투자와 성과 2006 : Korean R&D Scoreboard, 과학기술정책연구원, 2006.
  5. 김수욱, "전략적 공급선 다변화를 위한 정보기술의 역할", 경영학연구, 제35권, 제5호(2006),pp.1309-1338.
  6. 김우식, "국내 전자기업의 경영성과와 R&D 활동과의 관계에 관한 연구", 산업경제연구, 제17권, 제4호(2004), pp.1467-1484.
  7. 김윤종, 정 욱, 임성민, 정상기, "포트폴리오 분석과 계층화분석기법(AHP)을 활용한 정부 IT분야 연구개발 투자 전략 연구", 경영과학, 제26권, 제1호(2009), pp.37-51.
  8. 김지대, 김기영, "신제품 개발전략의 유형과 성과에 관한 연구", 한국경영과학회지, 제21권, 제3호(1996), pp.11-46.
  9. 김창우, 김동환, 정책 부작용의 원인과 유형-시스템 사고에 입각한 분석, 제1회 복잡계 컨퍼런스, 2006..
  10. 김현정, 김수욱, "AHP와 QFD를 이용한 철도기술 개선에 관한 실증적 연구", 한국품질경영학회지, 제41권, 제2호(2013), pp.301-322.
  11. 박철민, "중소제조기업 연구개발비 투자가 경영성과에 미치는 영향", 대한경영학회지, 제42권, 제1호(2004), pp.101-125.
  12. 신근섭, 기업의 시스템 역량과 기술혁신의 인과관계에 대한 분석 : 시스템 다이내믹스에 의한 접근, 서울대학교 대학원, 2006.
  13. 오상영, "시스템 사고를 적용한 효과적인 정부의 중소기업지원 시점 연구", 한국 시스템 다이내믹스 연구, 제7권, 제2호(2006), pp.21-34.
  14. 윤병섭, 허호영, "연구개발투자가 경영성과에 미치는 영향 : 2010년 한국 R&D Scoreboard", 전문경영인연구, 제14권, 제2호(2011), pp.109-131.
  15. 이상만, 연구개발비와 광고비 지출의 이익예측력에 관한 연구 : 경상이익 예측력을 중심으로, 단국대학교 대학원, 1994.
  16. 이윤석, 이석준, 문홍근, "전사적 정보화 투자성과 평가 방법론의 개발과 적용 : 삼성그룹 사례", Information Systems Review, 제6권, 제1호(2004), pp.85-102.
  17. 이흥권, R&D 투자 효율성 제고를 위한 전략적 예산편성 방안 연구, 한국과학기술기획평가원, 2011.
  18. 일본 문부과학성 과학기술정책연구소, "2030년의 과학기술", 제7회 일본 문부과학성 기술예측조사 보고서, 한국과학기술정보연구원 편역, 2002.
  19. 장성근, 류성일, 김진우, "디자인 중심 신제품 개발 전략의 성공 요인 : 초콜릿 폰 개발 사례를 중심으로", 경영과학, 제24권, 제1호(2007), pp.1-24.
  20. 정진수, 박재영, "KOSDAQ 등록기업의 연구개발비가 기업가치에 미치는 영향", 산업경제연구, 제17권, 제4호(2004), pp.1273-1289.
  21. 조선 비즈, 산기협, "올 기업 R&D 투자 58조 3287억 전망", 2015. 3. 24.
  22. 조성표, 정재용, "연구개발비 지출의 다기간 이익효과 분석", 경영학연구, 제30권, 제1호(2001), pp.289-315.
  23. 최강화, 곽수일, 김수욱, "시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 기술혁신의 동태성 분석", 경영과학, 제23권, 제1호(2006), pp.87-113.
  24. 하영원, 박흥수, "한국, 미국, 일본의 신제품 성공요인에 관한 비교연구", 경영학연구, 제30권, 제2호(2001), pp.531-556.
  25. 한국과학기술기획평가원, 연구개발 활동 조사 보고서, 교육과학기술부, 2010.
  26. 허범도, 중소기업정책의 평가 및 새로운 정책모형에 관한 연구, 숭실대학교 대학원, 2003.
  27. 허범도, 김용덕, "중소기업정책의 새로운 정책모형 및 향후 발전방향", 국제지역연구, 제10권, 제3호(2006), pp.250-271.
  28. 현대경제연구원, 한.중.일 상장기업 R&D 투자 효율성 비교, 2015.
  29. 홍영교, 정석환, "한국 시스템 다이내믹스 연구 경향 분석 : 7년의 성과와 반성 그리고 제안", 한국 시스템 다이내믹스 연구, 제8권, 제1호(2007), pp.25-47.
  30. Abernathy, W.J. and J.M. Utterback, "Patterns of Industrial Innovation," Technology Review, Vol.80, No.7(1978), pp.41-47.
  31. Balkin, D.B., G.D. Markman, and L.R. Gomez-Mejia, "Is CEO Pay in High-Technology Firms Related to Innovation?," Academy of Management Journal, Vol.43, No.3(2000), pp.1118-1129. https://doi.org/10.2307/1556340
  32. Bar-Ilan, A. and W.C. Strange, "A Model of Sequential Investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol.22, No.3(1998), pp. 437-463. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1889(97)00066-3
  33. Bor, Y.J., Y.-C. Chuang, W.-W. Lai, and C.-M. Yang, "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model for Public R&D Investment in Taiwan," Economic Modelling, Vol.27, No.1(2010), pp.171-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2009.08.007
  34. Boer, F.P., The Valuation of Technology : Business and Financial Issues in R&D, Wiley, 1999.
  35. Brown, R., "Managing the "S" Curves of Innovation," Journal of Consumer Marketing, Vol. 9, No.1(1992), pp.61-72. https://doi.org/10.1108/EUM0000000002597
  36. Chan, S.H., J.D. Martin, and J.W. Kensinger, "Corporate Research and Development Expenditures and Share Value," Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.26, No.2(1990), pp.255-276. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(90)90005-K
  37. Chen, H.-L., "Board Capital, CEO Power and R&D Investment in Electronics Firms," Corporate Governance : An International Review, Vol.22, No.5(2014), pp.422-436. https://doi.org/10.1111/corg.12076
  38. Choi, K., R. Narasimhan, and S.W. Kim, "Opening the Technological Innovation Black Box : The Case of the Electronics Industry in Korea," European Journal of Operational Research (2015), doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2015.08.054.
  39. Darling, T.A. and G.P. Richardson, A Behavioral Simulation Model of Single and Iterative Negotiations, Proceedings of the 1990 International System Dynamics Conference, 1990.
  40. Dooley, K., A. Subra, and J. Anderson, "Maturity and Its Impact on New Product Development Project Performance," Research in Engineering Design Vol.13, No.1(2001), pp.23-29. https://doi.org/10.1007/s001630100003
  41. Dugal, S.S. and G.K. Morbey, "Revisiting Corporate R&D Spending during a Recession," Research Technology Management, Vol.38, No.4(1995), p.23. https://doi.org/10.1080/08956308.1995.11674276
  42. Eberhart, A.C., W.F. Maxwell, and A.R. Siddique, "An Examination of Long-Term Abnormal Stock Returns and Operating Performance Following R&D Increases," Journal of Finance, Vol.59, No.2(2004), pp.623-649. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2004.00644.x
  43. Finkelstein, S. and B.K. Boyd, "How Much Does the CEO Matter? The Role of Managerial Discretion in the Setting of CEO Compensation," Academy of Management Journal, Vol.41, No.2 (1998), pp.179-199. https://doi.org/10.2307/257101
  44. Forman, E.H. and S.I. Gass, "The Analytic Hierarchy Process-An Exposition," Operations Research, Vol.49, No.4(2001), pp.469-486. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.49.4.469.11231
  45. Forrester, J.W., Industrial Dynamics, Waltham, MA : Pegasus Communications, 1961.
  46. Foster, R.N., "Corporate Performance and Technological Change through Investor's Eyes," Research Technology Management, Vol.46, No.6 (2003), pp.36-43. https://doi.org/10.1080/08956308.2003.11671595
  47. Ghosh, M., "R&D Policies and Endogenous Growth : A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of the Case for Canada," Review of Development Economics, Vol.11, No.1(2007), pp. 187-203. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2007.00381.x
  48. Grenadier, S.R. and A.M. Weiss, "Investment in Technological Innovations : An Option Pricing Approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.44, No.1(1997), pp.397-416. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(97)00009-3
  49. Hansen, K.F., M.A. Weiss, and S. Kwak, "Allocation R&D Resources : A Quantitative Aid to Management Insight, Research-Technology Management, Vol.42, No.4(1999), pp.44-50.
  50. Keogh, G. and E. D'Arcy, "Market Maturity and Property Market Behaviour : A European Comparison of Mature and Emergent Markets," Journal of Property Research, Vol.11, No.3 (1994), pp.215-235. https://doi.org/10.1080/09599919408724118
  51. Kor, Y.Y., "Direct and Interaction Effects of Top Management Team and Board Compositions on R&D Investment Strategy," Strategic Management Journal, Vol.27, No.2(2006), pp.1081-1110. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.554
  52. Kotler, P., "Competitive Strategies for New Product Marketing over the Life Cycle," Management Science, Vol.12, No.4(1965), p.104. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.12.4.B104
  53. Lev, B. and T. Sougiannis, "The Capitalization, Amortization, and Value-Relevance of R&D," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol.21, No.1(1996), pp.107-138. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-4101(95)00410-6
  54. Levine, R. and H. Fitzgerald, Analysis of Dynamic Psychological Systems, Plenum Press, New York, 1992.
  55. Lundvall, B.A., Innovation, Growth, and Social Cohesion : The Danish Model, Cheltenham, Elgar, 2002.
  56. Lynn, G.S., J.G. Morone, and A.S. Paulson, Marketing and Discontinuous Innovation : The Probe and Learn Process, In M.L. Tushman and P. Anderson(Eds), Managing Strategic Innovation and Change, Oxford University Press, 1997.
  57. Mishra, S., D. Kim, and D.H. Lee, "Factors Affecting New Product Success : Cross-country Comparisons," Journal of Product Innovation Management, Vol.13, No.6(1996), pp.530-550. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0737-6782(96)00050-1
  58. Richardson, G.P., "Reflections for the Future of System Dynamics," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol.50, No.4(1999), pp.440-449. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2600749
  59. Roberts, K. and M.L. Weitzman, "Funding Criteria for Research, Development, and Exploration Projects," Econometrica, Vol.49, No.3(1981), pp.1261-1288. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912754
  60. Shane, S.A., Technology Strategy for Managers and Entrepreneurs, Prentice Hall, 2009.
  61. Tubbs, M., "The Relationship between R&D and Company Performance," Research Technology Management, Vol.50, No.6(2007), pp. 23-30.