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한국형 기동무기체계 양산비 비용추정관계식 개발에 관한 연구

A Study on Developing a CER Using Production Cost Data in Korean Maneuver Weapon System

  • 이두현 (방위사업청 분석시험평가국 사업분석과) ;
  • 김각규 (육군 분석평가단)
  • Lee, Doo-Hyun (Analysis, Test and Evaluation Bureau Program Analysis Division) ;
  • Kim, Gak-Gyu (Center for Army Analysis and Simulation at ROK army)
  • 투고 : 2014.03.25
  • 심사 : 2014.07.01
  • 발행 : 2014.09.30

초록

In this paper, we deal with developing a cost estimation relationships (CER) for Korean maneuverable weapons systems using historical production cost. To develop the CER, we collected the historical data of the production cost of four tanks and five armored vehicles. We also analyzed the Required Operational Capability (ROC) of the weapons systems and chose cost drivers that can compare operational capabilities of the weapons systems We used Forward selection, Backward selection, Stepwise Regression and $R^2$ selection as the cost drivers which have the greatest influence with the dependent variables. And we used Principle Component Regression, Robust Regression and Weighted Regression to deal with multicollinearity and outlier among the data to develop a more appropriate CER. As a result, we were able to develop a production cost CER for Korean maneuverable weapons systems that have the lowest cost errors. Thus, this research is meaningful in terms of developing a CER based on Korean original cost data without foreign data and these methods will contribute to developing a Korean cost analysis program in the future.

키워드

참고문헌

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