Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회논문집)

Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회)
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Housing Market Participants' Decision Process and The Dynamics of Ripple Effect on Korean Housing Market - Focusing on The Cause of Housing Market Stagnation and Housing Policies After 2008 Global Financial Crisis -

국내 주택시장 참여자의 거래의사 결정과정 및 시장 파급효과의 동태적 분석 - 금융위기 이후의 주택시장 침체원인 및 주택정책을 중심으로 -

  • Hyun, Hosang (Department of Architectural Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Hyun-Soo (Department of Architectural Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Park, Moonseo (Department of Architectural Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Hwang, Sungjoo (Department of Architectural Engineering, Seoul National University)
  • Received : 2014.05.07
  • Accepted : 2014.08.26
  • Published : 2014.09.30
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Abstract

After 2008 global financial crisis, Korean housing market has experienced stagnation. So it caused housing market problems like housing price reduction, rising rent cost and so on. For housing market normalization government announced policies but Korean housing market didn't recover from stagnation. So, to understand why Korean housing market couldn't overcome the recession and why the policies didn't be effective, this research analyzed housing market participants (home owner, housing demand) based on the law of supply and demand and the psychological effect on their transaction intention based on behavioral economics(behavioral finance). Based on the analysis this research tested the effectiveness of announced policies using System Dynamics. The result showed that the amount of transaction and mortgage loan was influenced by the length of time to draft policies.

2008년 글로벌 금융위기 이후 국내의 주택시장은 침체기를 겪고 있으며 이에 따라 주택가격의 하락, 임대주택가격의 상승등과 같은 주택시장의 문제점이 발생하였다. 주택시장의 정상화를 위해 정부에서는 다양한 주택정책을 발표하였으나 주택시장은 아직 회복세를 보이지 않고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 주택시장의 침체 원인 분석하기 위해 주택 시장의 주요 참여자인 주택공급자와 주택 수요자를 기존의 수요 공급 원리에 의해서 분석하며 이들의 거래의사에 영향을 미치는 심리적 요인을 행동경제학 이론을 바탕으로 분석한다. 이의 분석 결과를 바탕으로 시스템다이내믹스 시뮬레이션 방법론을 사용하여 발표된 정책의 실효성을 검증한 결과 정책의 입안 기간에 따라 주택 거래량과 주택담보대출 총액이 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

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