Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater (상하수도학회지)

The Korean Society of Water and Wastewater (대한상하수도학회)
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Evaluation of short-term water demand forecasting using ensemble model

앙상블 모형을 이용한 단기 용수사용량 예측의 적용성 평가

  • Received : 2014.04.16
  • Accepted : 2014.06.30
  • Published : 2014.08.15
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Abstract

In recent years, Smart Water Grid (SWG) concept has globally emerged over the last decade and also gained significant recognition in South Korea. Especially, there has been growing interest in water demand forecast and this has led to various studies regarding energy saving and improvement of water supply reliability. In this regard, this study aims to develop a nonlinear ensemble model for hourly water demand forecasting which allow us to estimate uncertainties across different model classes. The concepts was demonstrated through application to observed from water plant (A) in the South Korea. Various statistics (e.g. the efficiency coefficient, the correlation coefficient, the root mean square error, and a maximum error rate) were evaluated to investigate model efficiency. The ensemble based model with an cross-validate prediction procedure showed better predictability for water demand forecasting at different temporal resolutions. In particular, the performance of the ensemble model on hourly water demand data showed promising results against other individual prediction schemes.

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References

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