AMSAA 모델을 이용한 일회성 체계의 신뢰도성장 예측

A Reliability Growth Prediction for a One-Shot System Using AMSAA Model

A one-shot device is defined as a product, system, weapon, or equipment that can be used only once. After use, the device is destroyed or must undergo extensive rebuild. Determining the reliability of a one-shot device poses a unique challenge to the manufacturers and users due to the destructive nature and costs of the testing. This paper presents a reliability growth prediction for a one-shot system. It is assumed that 1) test duration is discrete(i.e. trials or rounds); 2) trials are statistically independent; 3) the number of failures for a given system configuration is distributed according to a binomial distribution; and 4) the cumulative expected number of failures through any sequence of configurations is given by AMSAA model. When the system development is represented by three configurations and the number of trials and failures during configurations are given, the AMSAA model parameters and reliability at configuration 3 are estimated by using a reliability growth analysis software. Further, if the reliability growth predictions do not meet the target reliability, the sample size of an additional test is determined for achieving the target reliability.