KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Development of the U-turn Accident Model at Signalized Intersections in Urban Areas by Logistic Regression Analysis

로지스틱 회귀분석에 의한 도시부 신호교차로 유턴 사고모형 개발

  • 강종호 (도로교통공단 울산경남지부) ;
  • 김경환 (경상대학교 도시공학과, 환경 및 지역발전연구소) ;
  • 김성문 (경상대학교, BK21+ 창조형 중소도시재생 전문인력 양성사업팀)
  • Received : 2014.05.02
  • Accepted : 2014.06.02
  • Published : 2014.08.01
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to develop the U-turn accident model at signalized intersections in urban areas. The characteristics of the accidents which are associated with U-turn operation at 3 and 4-legged signalized intersections was analyzed and the U-turn accident model was developed by regression analysis in Changwon city. First, in order to analyze the effectiveness on traffic accidents by U-turn installation, the difference of mean of traffic accident number are measured between two groups which are composed by whether or not U-turn installation the groups by Mann-Whitney U test. The result of significance test showed that intergroup comparison on mean by accident types made difference except rear-end accident type and by accident locations exit section only showed difference in significance level at 4-legged intersections, so the accident number have more where the U-turn is permitted than not. Response measures about the number of accidents were classified by whether accidents occurred and accident model were constructed using binomial logistic regression analysis method. The developed models show that the variables of conflict traffic, number of opposing lane are adopted as independent variable for both intersections. The variables of longitudinal grade for 3-legged signalized intersection and number of crosswalk for 4-legged signalized intersection at which the U-turn is permitted is adopted as independent variable only. These study results suggest that U-turn would be permitted at the intersection where the number of opposing lane is more than 3.5 each, the longitudinal grade of opposing road is upward flow and there is need to establish the U-turn traffic sign at signalized intersections.

본 연구의 목적은 도시부 신호교차로에서의 유턴 사고모형을 개발하는 것이다. 창원시 3지, 4지 신호교차로의 유턴 교통사고 자료에 대한 특성을 분석하고 로지스틱 회귀분석에 의해 사고예측모형을 추정하였다. 먼저 유턴 운영에 의한 교통사고 발생에 차이가 있는지를 검정하기 위해 맨-위트니 U검정으로 평균차이를 검정하였다. 분석 결과 4지 신호교차로의 사고유형별 구분에 있어서는 추돌사고를 제외한 유형에서, 사고위치별에 있어서는 유출부 사고가 유턴구역이 설치된 집단의 사고발생건수가 더 많은 것으로 분석되었다. 교통사고건수에 대한 반응척도를 이항으로 분류하고 사고예측모형을 추정한 결과 상충교통량, 대향차로수와 같은 독립변수가 공통적인 영향요인으로 분석되었으며, 3지 신호교차로에서는 종단 경사, 4지 신호교차로에서는 횡단보도수가 공통영향 이외에 특정변수로 도출되었다. 도시부 신호교차로에서 유턴 운영을 위해서는 유턴 구역 대향차로수가 사고무발생 교차로의 평균차로수인 3.5개 차로 이상이며, 접근부의 종단선형이 상향경사일 경우에 설치를 고려할 수 있을 것으로 제안된다. 또한 유턴 차량의 많은 부분이 횡단보도 시간을 이용하여 회전하는 점을 고려하여 유턴 시기에 대한 지시표지를 설치할 필요가 있다.

Keywords

References

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Cited by

  1. Random Parameter Negative Binomial Model of Signalized Intersections vol.2016, 2016, https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/1436364