Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment (환경영향평가)

Korean Society of Environmental Impact Assessment (한국환경영향평가학회)
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Habitat prediction and impact assessment of Neolitsea sericea (Blume) Koidz. under Climate Change in Korea

기후변화에 따른 한반도 참식나무 생육지 예측과 영향 평가

  • Yun, Jong-Hak (Ecosystem assessment team, National Institute of Ecology) ;
  • Nakao, Katsuhiro (Dep. of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute) ;
  • Kim, Jung-Hyun (Plant Research Division, National Institute of Biological Resource) ;
  • Kim, Sun-Yu (Plant Research Division, National Institute of Biological Resource) ;
  • Park, Chan-Ho (Plant Research Division, National Institute of Biological Resource) ;
  • Lee, Byoung-Yoon (Plant Research Division, National Institute of Biological Resource)
  • Received : 2013.11.28
  • Accepted : 2014.02.18
  • Published : 2014.04.30
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Abstract

The research was carried out in order to find climate factors which determine the distribution of Neolitsea sericea, and the potential habitats (PHs) under the current climate and three climate change scenario by using species distribution models (SDMs). Four climate factors; the minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC), the warmth index (WI), summer precipitation (PRS), and winter precipition (PRW) : were used as independent variables for the model. Three general circulation models under A1B emission scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the 2050s (2040~2069) and 2080s (2070~2099). Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for N. sericea. The model of distribution for N. sericea constructed by SDMs showed that minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC) is a major climate factor in determining the distribution of N. sericea. The area above the $-4.4^{\circ}C$ of TMC revealed high occurrence probability of the N. sericea. Future PHs for N. sericea were projected to increase respectively by 4 times, 6.4 times of current PHs under 2050s and 2080s. It is expected that the potential of N. sericea habitats is expanded gradually. N. sericea is applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula. N. sericea is necessary to be monitored of potential habitats.

Keywords

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