자원환경지질 (Economic and Environmental Geology)

  • 제47권2호
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  • Pages.133-146
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  • 2014
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  • 1225-7281(pISSN)
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  • 2288-7962(eISSN)
대한자원환경지질학회 (The Korean Society of Economic and Environmental Geology)
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자연재해의 경제적 영향평가 연구방법론과 백두산화산재해에의 적용 가능성

Research Methodology for the Economic Impact Assessment of Natural Disasters and Its Applicability for the Baekdu Mountain Volcanic Disaster

  • Jiang, Zhuhua (HK Research Institute, Incheon National University) ;
  • Yu, Soon-Young (Research Institute for Social Criticality, Pusan National University) ;
  • Yoon, Seong-Min (Department of Economics, Pusan National University)
  • 투고 : 2013.12.26
  • 심사 : 2014.02.10
  • 발행 : 2014.04.28
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초록

자연재해의 경제적 영향평가에 대한 연구는 많으나 화산재해의 영향평가에 대한 연구는 상대적으로 매우 적다. 국내의 경우, 화산 폭발에 대한 국가적, 사회적 관심 부족으로 화산재해 영향평가에 대한 학계 연구도 매우 부족하다. 이러한 연구실정을 고려하여, 본 연구는 자연재해의 경제적 영향평가 연구방법론을 조사하고 향후 예상되는 백두산 화산재해에의 적용 가능성을 검토하였다. 본 연구의 주요 내용과 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 자연재해 및 화산재해에 대해 조사한 결과, 아시아지역에서 자연재해 피해규모가 가장 컸고 아시아와 아메리카 대륙의 경제적 피해가 가장 많았던 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 최근 30년 사이에 화산분화가 매우 빈번했던 일본에서 화산재해로 인한 피해연구가 활발했던 반면, 화산분화가 드문 한국과 중국에서는 화산재해의 경제적 영향에 대한 연구가 매우 희소하다. 셋째, 자연재해에 의한 피해 유형 및 복합 피해구조에 대하여 살펴보았고, 그 중에서 정량적인 분석이 가능하다고 생각되는 경제적 간접피해를 추정할 수 있는 몇 가지 방법들을 비교 검토해 보았다. 각 방법론을 백두산 화산재해에 적용하는 경우, 모형 고유의 특징 때문에 피해규모가 과대 추정되거나 혹은 과소 추정될 가능성이 있으므로 계산된 피해결과는 사후적인 비교 검토가 필요하다. 마지막으로 일본의 화산재해에 관한 학술적 연구를 백두산 화산폭발의 경제적 영향 평가 연구의 출발점으로 활용할 수도 있겠지만, 미국에서 사용되는 Hazus나 뉴질랜드에서 사용되는 RiskScape와 같은 컴퓨터 SW를 활용하거나 개발하여 백두산 화산재해의 경제적 영향을 예측하는 것도 좋은 방법이라고 생각된다.

There are many studies for the economic impact assessment of natural disasters, but there are few for volcanic disasters. Domestic academic research is not under active discussion because of the lack of national and social interest for volcanic eruption. This study investigated the research methodology for the economic impact assessment of natural disasters and discussed whether these can be applied to the economic impact analysis for the Baekdu Mountain volcanic disaster. The main findings are as follows: Firstly, Asia-Pacific region is the most affected by natural disasters and has the largest scale of damage. Asian and American Continent have the most economic damage. Secondly, Considering the types of damage caused by natural disasters and its complex structure, several methodologies that could be possible to estimate economic consequential damages have been compared. When applying each methodology to the Baekdu Mountain volcanic disaster, the scale of damage is likely to be over-estimated or under-estimated because of model-specific features. Thus, estimated values should be compared to each other after calculating the damage results. Thirdly, Japanese academic research on the volcanic disaster will be used as the starting point of the economic impact assessment studies for Baekdu Mountain. Using computer SW such as Hazus which is used in United States and RiskScape from New Zealand is also a good method to predict economic impact of the Baekdu Mountain volcanic disaster.

키워드

참고문헌

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  2. Computable general equilibrium modelling of economic impacts from volcanic event scenarios at regional and national scale, Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand vol.79, pp.12, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-017-1171-3
  3. The Impacts of Natural Disasters on Population Outflow: Focusing on the Flood vol.18, pp.7, 2018, https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2018.18.7.137