Journal of Digital Convergence (디지털융복합연구)

The Society of Digital Policy and Management (한국디지털정책학회)
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Correlation Analysis Among the Price of Apartments in Seoul, Stock Market and main Economic Indicators

서울지역 아파트가격과 주식시장 및 주요 경제지표와의 상관관계 분석

  • Received : 2013.12.18
  • Accepted : 2014.02.20
  • Published : 2014.02.28
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Abstract

Real estate has been the most preferable investment asset since 1980's has begun. Especially the ups and downs of housing price influence significantly on the household and national economy for a digital economy. In this analysis, monthly movement of apartment price of Seoul and its correlation with KOSPI, construction concerned shares, securities concerned shares, interest rate and exchange rate for 320 months(from January, 1987 to August, 2013) are shown. From the analysis, correlation coefficient of the price of apartment in Seoul and KOSPI is 0.8566 which is highly positive while the price of apartment in Seoul and interest rate are shown strong negative correlation which is -0.7846. The rise of stock market does affect the rise of the price of apartments in Seoul, on the contrary, the price goes down when the interest rate goes up.

디지털경제를 맞이하여 지난 1980년대 중반 이후 부동산이 가장 선호하는 투자자산으로 부각되면서 많은 관심을 받아오고 있다. 부동산 중에서 주택가격의 상승과 하락은 가계 및 국가경제에 많은 비중을 차지하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 서울지역 아파트가격과 KOSPI, 건설주, 증권주, 금리, 환율 지표를 이용하여 지난 1987년 1월부터 2013년 8월까지 총 320개월 동안 월별 동향을 살펴보면서 서울지역 아파트가격과 각 지표와의 상관관계를 살펴보았다. 또한 서울지역 아파트가격의 상승과 하락에 어느 지표가 얼마나 영향을 주는지도 분석하였다. 상관관계 분석결과 서울지역 아파트가격과 KOSPI의 상관계수는 0.8566로 높은 양(+)의 값을 보여주었으나 반대로 금리는 -0.7846으로 강한 음(-)의 상관관계를 보여주었다. 주식시장의 상승은 서울지역 아파트가격 상승에 많은 영향을 주고 있으며 금리 하락은 서울지역 아파트가격의 가격상승으로 나타난다고 해석된다. 연구결과 서울지역 아파트가격은 KOSPI를 비롯하여 각 지표들과 통계적으로 유의한 관계를 유지하며 변동하고 있는 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

References

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