Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies (한국지리정보학회지)

The Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies (한국지리정보학회)
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Development of Crown Fire Propagation Probability Equation Using Logistic Regression Model

로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 수관화확산확률식의 개발

  • Ryu, Gye-Sun (Division of Forest Disaster Management, Korea Forest Research Institute) ;
  • Lee, Byung-Doo (Division of Forest Disaster Management, Korea Forest Research Institute) ;
  • Won, Myoung-Soo (Division of Forest Disaster Management, Korea Forest Research Institute) ;
  • Kim, Kyong-Ha (Division of Forest Disaster Management, Korea Forest Research Institute)
  • 유계선 (국립산림과학원 산림방재연구과) ;
  • 이병두 (국립산림과학원 산림방재연구과) ;
  • 원명수 (국립산림과학원 산림방재연구과) ;
  • 김경하 (국립산림과학원 산림방재연구과)
  • Received : 2013.09.05
  • Accepted : 2014.03.07
  • Published : 2014.03.31
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Abstract

Crown fire, the main propagation type of large forest fire, has caused extreme damage with the fast spread rate and the high flame intensity. In this paper, we developed the probability equation to predict the crown fires using the spatial features of topography, fuel and weather in damaged area by crown fire. Eighteen variables were collected and then classified by burn severity utilizing geographic information system and remote sensing. Crown fire ratio and logistic regression model were used to select related variables and to estimate the weights for the classes of each variables. As a results, elevation, forest type, elevation relief ratio, folded aspect, plan curvature and solar insolation were related to the crown fire propagation. The crown fire propagation probability equation may can be applied to the priority setting of fuel treatment and suppression resources allocation for forest fire.

수관화는 대형산불의 주된 확산유형으로 빠른 확산속도와 높은 산불강도의 특성을 보이며 많은 피해를 입힌다. 이 연구에서는 수관화 피해를 사전에 예측하기 위해서 수관전소 피해를 입은 지역의 지형 임상 기상 특성을 분석하여 수관화확산확률식을 개발하였다. 영덕 울진 고령 예천에서 일어난 4개의 산불피해지를 대상으로 하였으며, 총 18개의 공간 변수를 구축한 뒤 기타연소지에 대한 수관전소지의 비를 이용하여 각 변수별 구간 가중치를 구하고 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용하여 변수와의 상관계수를 산출하였다. 그 결과, 수관화확산확률은 임상이 침엽수림일 때, 250m 이상에서 고도가 높아질수록, 기복이 심할수록, 사면향은 남서 또는 남동사면일 경우, 능선일수록, 일사량이 많아질수록 높게 나타났다. 고도와 경사가 낮은 곳에서는 교란현상이 많이 나타나 일정한 패턴을 보이지 않았다. 이 확률식을 통해 수관화 위험지를 사전에 분석할 수 있고, 산불방지 숲가꾸기 지역 선정 및 진화 우선 지역 선정 등에 효과적으로 활용할 수 있을 것이다.

Keywords

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