Journal of Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회지)

Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회)
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An Impact of Gas Prices on Transit Demand Using a Time-series Analysis and a Regression Analysis

시계열 및 회귀분석을 활용한 휘발유가격의 광역권별·수단별 대중교통수요 영향력 비교분석

  • Lee, Kwang Sub (Transport Systems Research Team, Korea Railroad Research Institute) ;
  • Eom, Jin Ki (Transport Systems Research Team, Korea Railroad Research Institute) ;
  • Moon, Dae Seop (Convergence Technology Research Team, Korea Railroad Research Institute) ;
  • Yang, Keun Yul (Green Transport and Logistics Institute, Korea Railroad Research Institute) ;
  • Lee, Jun (Transport Systems Research Team, Korea Railroad Research Institute)
  • 이광섭 (한국철도기술연구원 교통체계분석연구단) ;
  • 엄진기 (한국철도기술연구원 교통체계분석연구단) ;
  • 문대섭 (한국철도기술연구원 융복합연구단) ;
  • 양근율 (한국철도기술연구원 녹색교통물류시스템공학연구소) ;
  • 이준 (한국철도기술연구원 교통체계분석연구단)
  • Received : 2013.09.23
  • Accepted : 2013.12.26
  • Published : 2014.02.28
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Abstract

Depending most of its energy sources on foreign countries, Korea efforts to reduce energy consumption in transportation. While studies on the relationship between gas price and transportation demand are many in number, most previous studies have focused on automobile and Seoul. This study analyzes the impact of gas price on transit (bus and subway) demand using monthly data and for various metropolitan areas (Seoul, Busan, Daejeon, Daegu and Gwangju). The research utilizes a time-series model and a multiple regression model, and calculates modal demand elasticities of gas price. The result shows that elasticities of subway demand with respect to gas price is higher than those of bus demand. In addition, elasticities of predominantly automobile cities are more likely to be more sensitive to gas price than those of cities with well-structured transit system.

국내에서 소비되는 에너지의 대부분을 해외에 의존하고 있는 우리나라는 교통부문에서도 에너지 절감을 위해 많은 노력을 하고 있다. 휘발유가격과 교통수요와의 관계는 국내외적으로 꾸준히 연구되어 왔으나 국내 선행연구는 승용차 및 수도권 중심으로 연구되어 왔다. 본 연구에서는 휘발유가격이 대중교통수요에 미치는 영향을 분석하며 월별 자료를 활용하여 대중교통 수단별(버스, 도시철도) 및 광역권별(수도권, 부산, 대전, 대구, 광주)로 실증적으로 비교분석했다. 분석을 위해 시계열모형과 다중회귀모형을 사용하였으며 회귀모형의 계수를 활용하여 유가에 대한 대중교통 수요의 탄력성을 비교하였다. 유가에 대한 수요탄력성이 버스보다 도시철도가 높게 나타났고, 대중교통체계가 잘 갖춰진 수도권보다 승용차 의존적인 지방 광역권이 유가에 더 민감한 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

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