Journal of Veterinary Clinics (한국임상수의학회지)

The Korean Society of Veterinary Clinics (한국임상수의학회)
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A Stochastic Model to Quantify the Risk of Introduction of Abalone Herpes-like Virus Through Import of Abalones

활 전복 수입에 의한 전복허피스바이러스감염증 (abalone herpes-like virus) 유입 위험평가

  • Pak, Son-Il (College of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University)
  • 박선일 (강원대학교 수의과대학 및 동물의학종합연구소)
  • Accepted : 2014.02.20
  • Published : 2014.02.28
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Abstract

Abalone herpes-like virus (AbHV) is a fatal disease of abalones that impose severe economic impacts on the industry of infected regions due to high mortality. The aim of this study was to quantify the risk of introducing AbHV into Korea through the importation of live abalones for human consumption by import risk analysis (IRA). Monte Carlo simulation models were developed to provide estimates of the probability that a ton of imported abalone contains at least one AbHV-infected individual, using historical trade data and relevant literatures. A sensitivity analysis with 5,000 iterations was also conducted to determine the extent to which input parameters affect the outcome of the model. Although many uncertainties were present in the data, the results indicated that, if 5,000 tons of abalone were imported from a hypothetical exporting country with low prevalence of AbHV (model 1), there would be at least one AbHV-infected abalones in 4,816 of those tons (96.3%), while there would be at least one AbHV-infected abalones in 100% of those tons imported from country with high prevalence (model 2). Sensitivity analysis indicated that for model 1, prevalence was the strongest influence factor on the predicted number of infections. For model 2, background mortality and washing to reduce the risk of surface contamination during processing were the major contributing factors. Risk management strategies need to be enforced to reduce the risk of AbHV introduction in that at least one infected abalone would remain in a consignment from country even with a low prevalence of AbHV infection. The methodology and the results presented here will contribute to improve the development of AbHV management program, and with more accurate data this IRA model will aid science-based decision-making on mitigation strategies to reduce the risk of AbHV introduction in Korea.

Keywords

References

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