조명전기설비학회논문지 (Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers)

  • 제28권7호
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  • Pages.97-105
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  • 2014
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  • 1229-4691(pISSN)
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  • 2287-5034(eISSN)
한국조명전기설비학회 (The Korean Institute of IIIuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers)
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전력계통한계가격(SMP)과 기저발전비율, LNG도입가격, 환율 간 인과관계 분석

An Analysis on the Causal Relation Among SMP, Base-Load Share, LNG Import Price, and Exchange Rate

  • 박민혁 (서울과학기술대학교 에너지환경대학원 에너지정책학과) ;
  • 문양택 (서울과학기술대학교 에너지환경대학원 에너지정책학과) ;
  • 박중구 (서울과학기술대학교 에너지환경대학원 에너지정책학과)
  • Park, Min Hyug (Dept. of Energy Policy, The Graduate School of Energy & Environment, Seoul National University of Science & Technology) ;
  • Moon, Yang Taik (Dept. of Energy Policy, The Graduate School of Energy & Environment, Seoul National University of Science & Technology) ;
  • Park, Jung Gu (Dept. of Energy Policy, The Graduate School of Energy & Environment, Seoul National University of Science & Technology)
  • 투고 : 2014.05.19
  • 심사 : 2014.05.13
  • 발행 : 2014.07.31
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초록

This article examines the causality relationship among SMP, base-load share, LNG import price, and exchange rate in Korean power market during 2002~2012, using unit root test, cointegration test, and vector error correction model(VECM). The cointegration test shows that 4 variables without unit root have been in the long-run causality. As the results of ECM, SMP is analyzed to have been unilaterally caused from LNG import price and base-load share in the shot-run, while it has been unilaterally caused from LNG import price and exchange rate in the long-run. This article has the following policy implications: the adjustment of exchange rate to reduce he risk of LNG import price and the proper securement of base-load share for the long-run stability of SMP.

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참고문헌

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