Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation (한국시뮬레이션학회논문지)

The Korea Society for Simulation (한국시뮬레이션학회)
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Adaptive Process Decision-Making with Simulation and Regression Models

시뮬레이션과 회귀분석을 연계한 적응형 공정의사결정방법

  • Received : 2014.07.15
  • Accepted : 2014.12.22
  • Published : 2014.12.31
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Abstract

This study proposes adaptive decision making method having feed-back structure of regression and simulation models to support the quick decision making of production managers by managing and integrating the mutual relationship among historical data. For that, from historical data that have extracted and accumulated from each process, we first selected major constraint resources that are used as independent variables in regression model. The regression model is designed by using the dependent variables (objectives) that defined above by managers and independent variables selected in previous step and simulation model that are composed of constraint resources is designed. In process of simulation run, we obtain the multiple feasible solutions (alternatives) by using meta-heuristic method. Each solution is substituted by regression equation and we found the optimal solution that is minimum of difference between values obtained by regression model and simulation results. The optimal solution is delivered and incorporated to production site and current operation results from production site is used to generate new regression model after that time.

본 연구는 생산공정운영시 발생하는 담당자의 의사결정 지원을 위한 학습형 공정 의사결정 시스템 구축방법에 대한 것이다. 먼저 추출 및 누적된 각 공정 별 이력 데이터에서, 주요한 주요자원(Critical Resource)을 단계적 회귀법에 따라 선정한다. 선정된 주요자원을 독립변수로 취급하여 담당자의 의사결정 대상이 되는 공정운영 성과를 종속변수로 하는 회귀모형을 산출하고, 해당 주요자원으로 구성된 시뮬레이션 모형을 설계한다. 메타휴리스틱 방법을 통하여 의사결정 시점의 생산계획 및 목적에 대한 시뮬레이션 분석을 실행하고, 복수 대안 및 가능해(기대성과)를 산출한다. 각각의 대안에서 주요자원 별 회귀모형을 구성하는 분석 값을 회귀식에 대입하고, 여기에서 얻어지는 값과 시뮬레이션 분석에 의해 산출된 가능해 간의 비교를 통하여 그 차이가 가장 작은 대안을 최적대안으로 선정하고 실제 공정운영 의사결정에 반영하여 생산을 실시한다. 이때 발생하는 공정 이력 데이터들은 이후 의사결정을 위한 회귀모형에 피드백 된다.

Keywords

References

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