Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society

The Korean Data and Information Science Society (한국데이터정보과학회)
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Study for independence of hits in professional baseball games

프로야구 경기에서 안타의 독립성에 대한 연구

  • Kim, Byungsoo (Department of Data information/Institute of Statistical Information, Inje University) ;
  • Park, Youngwook (Department of Data information/Institute of Statistical Information, Inje University) ;
  • Jang, Nayoung (Department of Data information/Institute of Statistical Information, Inje University)
  • 김병수 (인제대학교 데이터정보학과/통계정보연구소) ;
  • 박영욱 (인제대학교 데이터정보학과/통계정보연구소) ;
  • 장나영 (인제대학교 데이터정보학과/통계정보연구소)
  • Received : 2013.10.10
  • Accepted : 2013.11.17
  • Published : 2013.11.30
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Abstract

In this paper, we would like to test whether the hit at a particular bat has a dependency with the hitting results at the previous bats in professional baseball games. For this purpose, we used the 2011 Korean Baseball League data. We find out that the hitting percentage at a particular bat has no dependency with the hit at the previous bat, after reviewing the conditional probability of hit at each bat and the lift. From the independence test of hits at consecutive bats, and hit at a particular bat with no hits at previous bats, we can conclude that hits at particular bats are not dependent on the hits at previous bats in most cases. Hence, we can safely conclude that a hit at a particular bat is statistically independent from the hits at the previous bats.

본 논문의 목적은 프로야구 경기에서 각 타석에서의 안타 여부가 이전 타석에서의 결과와 관련이 있는지를 살펴보는 것이다. 이를 위해 한국프로야구 8개 구단의 2011년 정규리그 자료를 이용하였다. 타석별로 안타에 대한 조건부 확률과 리프트를 구하여 본 결과 특정 타석의 타율이 이전 타석에서의 안타 여부에 따라 크게 달라지지 않는다는 것을 확인 할 수 있었다. 특정 타석과 이전 타석의 결과 에 대한 독립성검정과 특정 타석의 결과와 이전 모든 타석에서의 무안타 여부와의 독립성검정을 보면 거의 대부분의 검정에서 종속으로 볼 수 없다는 결과를 얻었다. 따라서 각 타석에서의 안타 여부는 이전 타석의 안타 여부와 관련성이 아주 적거나 서로 독립적인 관계에 있다고 결론 내릴 수 있다.

Keywords

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