Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Development of Multi-Site Daily Rainfall Simulation Based on Homogeneous Hidden Markov Chain Model Coupled with Chow-Liu Tree Structures

Chow-Liu Tree 모형과 동질성 Hidden Markov Model을 연계한 다지점 일강수량 모의기법 개발

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University) ;
  • Kim, Tae Jeong (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University) ;
  • Kim, Oon Ki (Disaster & Safety Administration, Jeongeup City Hall) ;
  • Lee, Dong Ryul (Korea Institute of Construction Technology Water Resources Research Division)
  • 권현한 (전북대학교 공과대학 토목공학과, 방재연구센터) ;
  • 김태정 (전북대학교 공과대학 토목공학과, 방재연구센터) ;
  • 김운기 (정읍시청 재난안전관리과) ;
  • 이동률 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원연구실)
  • Received : 2013.07.15
  • Accepted : 2013.09.11
  • Published : 2013.10.31
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Abstract

This study aims to develop a multivariate daily rainfall simulation model considering spatial coherence across watershed. The existing Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been mainly applied to single site case so that the spatial coherences are not properly addressed. In this regard, HMM coupled with Chow-Liu Tree (CLT) that is designed to consider inter-dependences across rainfall networks was proposed. The proposed approach is applied to Han-River watershed where long-term and reliable hydrologic data is available, and a rigorous validation is finally conducted to verify the model's capability. It was found that the proposed model showed better performance in terms of reproducing daily rainfall statistics as well as seasonal rainfall statistics. Also, correlation matrix across stations for observation and simulation was compared and examined. It was confirmed that the spatial coherence was well reproduced via CLT-HMM model.

본 연구에서는 유역의 공간상관성을 고려한 다지점 일단위 강수량을 동시에 모의할 수 있는 일강수량 모의기법을 개발하였다. 기존 Hidden Markov Chain Model(HMM)은 단일지점 강수모의에 적용되어 왔으나 관측지점간의 유역상관성을 충분히 고려하지 못하는 문제점을 가지고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 Chow-Liu Tree (CLT) 모형을 적용하여 다변량(multivariate) 형태로써 유역내에 위치한 강우관측소간의 상호종속성을 고려하기 위하여 기존의 동질성 HMM 강우모의기법과 CLT 알고리즘을 결합한 동질성 CLT-HMM 모형을 개발하였다. 본 연구에서 개발된 동질성 CLT-HMM 모형을 사용하여장기간의수문자료를보유하고있는기상청산하의한강유역강수네트워크에대해서 적합성을 검토하였다. 동질성 CLT-HMM 모형을 적용하여 모의된 결과를 보면 일강수량의 계절적 특성뿐만 아니라 일강수량모의 시 강수시계열의 통계적인 특성들까지 우수하게 모의하였다. 추가적으로 상관행렬(correlation matrix)을 이용하여 기상관측소간의 공간상관 재현성을 검토한 결과 관측지점들 사이의 공간상관성도 비교적 우수하게 재현하는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

Keywords

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