Modeling the Present Probability of Urban Woody Plants in the face of Climate Change

기후변화에 따른 도시 수종의 기후 적합성 평가모델 - 서울시를 대상으로 -

  • Kim, Yoon-Jung (Graduate School, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Dong-Kun (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Park, Chan (National Institute of Environmental Research)
  • 김윤정 (서울대학교 대학원) ;
  • 이동근 (서울대학교 조경.지역시스템공학부) ;
  • 박찬 (국립환경과학원)
  • Received : 2012.11.22
  • Accepted : 2013.01.29
  • Published : 2013.02.28


The effect of climate change on urban woody plants remains difficult to predict in urban areas. Depending on its tolerances, a plant species may stay and survive or stay with slowly declining remnant populations under a changing climate. To predict those vulnerabilities on urban woody plants, this study suggests a basic bioclimatic envelop model of heat requirements, cold tolerance, chilling requirements and moisture requirements that are well documented as the 'climatic niche'. Each component of the 'climatic niche' is measured by the warmth index, the absolute minimum temperature, the number of chilling weeks and the water balance. Regarding the utility of the developed model, the selected urban plant's present probabilities are suggested in the future climate of Seoul. Both Korea and Japan's thermal thresholds are considered for a plant's optimal climatic niche. By considering the thermal thresholds of these two regions for the same species, the different responses observed will reflect the plant's 'hardening' process in a rising climate. The model illustrated that the subpolar plants Taxus cuspidata and Ulmus davidiana var. japonica are predicted to have low suitability in Seoul. The temperate plants Zelkova serrata and Pinus densiflora, which have a broad climatic niche, exhibited the highest present probability in the future. The subtropical plants Camellia japonica and Castanopsis cuspidata var. sieboldii may exhibit a modest growth pattern in the late 21C's future climatic period when an appropriate frost management scheme is offered. The model can be used to hypothesize how urban ecosystems could change over time. Moreover, the developed model can be used to establish selection guidelines for urban plants with high levels of climatic adaptability.


Supported by : Korea Environmental Industry and Technology Institute(KEITI)


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