Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Analysis on the Characteristics about Representative Temporal-distribution of Rainfall in the Annual Maximum Independent Rainfall Events at Seoul using Beta Distribution

베타분포를 이용한 서울 지점 연 최대치 독립 호우사상의 대표 시간분포 특성 분석

  • Jun, Chang Hyun (School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, College of Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Yoo, Chulsang (School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, College of Engineering, Korea University)
  • 전창현 (고려대학교 공과대학 건축사회환경공학부) ;
  • 유철상 (고려대학교 공과대학 건축사회환경공학부)
  • Received : 2012.05.02
  • Accepted : 2012.12.05
  • Published : 2013.04.30
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Abstract

This study used the beta distribution to analyze the independent annual maximum rainfall events from 1961 to 2010 and decided the representative rainfall event for Seoul. In detail, the annual maximum rainfall events were divided into two groups, the upper 50% and the lower 50%. For each group, a beta distribution was derived to pass the mean location of the rainfall peaks. Finally, the representative rainfall event was decided as the rainfall histogram of the arithmetic average of the two beta distributions derived. The representative rainfall event derived has a realistic shape very similar to those observed annual maximum rainfall events, especially with the higher rainfall peak compared to that of the Huff distribution. Comparison with other rainfall distribution models shows that the temporal distribution of the representative rainfall event derived in this study is most similar to the Keifer & Chu model.

본 연구에서는 1961~2010년 사이의 서울 지점 연 최대치 독립 호우사상들을 베타분포로 분석하여 서울지점의 대표 호우사상을 결정하였다. 구체적으로 살펴보면, 먼저, 첨두강우량을 기준으로 연최대치 호우사상들을 상위 50%와 하위 50%로 구분한다. 각각의 경우에 대해 첨두강우량의 평균을 지나는 베타분포를 유도한다. 마지막으로, 유도된 두 베타분포의 산술평균을 우량주상도로 나타내어 대표 호우사상을 결정한다. 이렇게 유도된 대표 호우사상은 실제 호우사상과 유사한 모양을 갖는 것으로 확인되었으며, 특히 Huff 분포에 비해 큰 첨두 강우량을 갖는 것으로 확인되었다. 여러 강우시간분포 모형들과 비교해 본 결과 Keifer & Chu 모형이 본 연구의 결과와 가장 유사한 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

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