The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences (한국통신학회논문지)

The Korean Institute of Commucations and Information Sciences (한국통신학회)
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Emerging Technologies in Mobile Communications for 2020

2020년 미래 무선통신 유망기술 발굴

  • 이경표 (아주대학교 산업공학과) ;
  • 송영근 (한국전자통신연구원 기술경제연구부) ;
  • 한우리 (서울대학교 산업공학과) ;
  • 이성주 (아주대학교 산업공학과)
  • Received : 2012.10.24
  • Accepted : 2012.12.21
  • Published : 2013.01.31
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Abstract

Recently, it becomes essential for firms or nations to forecast the future and identify emerging technologies in order to improve R&D efficiency and gain a competitive advantage. Particularly, the mobile communications industry is characterized by rapid advance and wide application of its technology and thus identifying emerging technologies is more important in the industry than in others. Nevertheless, few attempts have been made to explore its emerging technologies. Therefore, this research aims to develop a methodology to identify the future and emerging technologies especially for the industry and applied it to list top ten emerging technologies for 2020 in the industry. For this purpose, firstly, we focused the key issues in the future targeting 2020 and identified user needs relating to them. Then, candidates of emerging technologies were defined from a set of technologies to meet the needs, for which technological and economic feasibility is assessed to determine their priorities. Finally, the top ten most important technologies were selected and verified. This research is distinct from the previous studies in that it takes a market-pull approach instead of a technology-push approach. The research results are expected to provide valuable information to support strategy- and policy-makings in the mobile communications industry.

최근 효율적인 R&D와 경쟁력 확보를 목적으로, 미래기술을 예측하고 유망기술을 발굴하고자 하는 활동이 전 세계적으로 활발히 이루어지고 있다. 특히 무선통신 분야는 기술발전 속도가 빠르고 적용영역이 광범위하여 유망기술 발굴이 더욱 중요함에도 불구하고, 국내에는 관련연구나 사례가 부족한 실정이다. 이에 본 연구는 무선통신 분야의 미래유망기술 발굴 방법론을 개발하고 이를 적용하여 2020년 무선통신 분야 10대 유망기술을 도출해 보고자 한다. 이를 위해 첫째, STEEP 관점에서 미래 주요 이슈들을 도출하고, 둘째, 주요 이슈 별 사용자 니즈를 도출하였다. 셋째, 사용자 니즈를 만족시키기 위한 기술들로 유망기술 후보군을 구성한 뒤 기술성과 경제성 평가를 통해 이들의 우선순위를 도출하였으며, 마지막으로 10대 유망기술을 선정하고 선정결과의 타당성을 검토하였다. 본 연구는 기존 연구에서 주로 활용하던 기술주도(technology-push) 접근법 아닌 시장주도(market-pull) 접근법을 활용하여 유망기술을 발굴하고자 하였다는 점에서 방법론적 의의가 있을 것이며, 연구결과는 무선통신 산업 내 전략적, 정책적 의사결정을 지원할 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

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