Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회지)

Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회)
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Uncertainty Assessment of Emission Factors for Pinus densiflora using Monte Carlo Simulation Technique

몬테 카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 소나무 탄소배출계수의 불확도 평가

  • Pyo, Jung Kee (Center of Forest and Climate Change, Korea Forest Research Institute) ;
  • Son, Yeong Mo (Center of Forest and Climate Change, Korea Forest Research Institute) ;
  • Jang, Gwang Min (Center of Forest Carbon Certification, Korea Forestry Promotion Institute) ;
  • Lee, Young Jin (Department of Forest Resources, Kongju National University)
  • 표정기 (국립산림과학원 기후변화연구센터) ;
  • 손영모 (국립산림과학원 기후변화연구센터) ;
  • 장광민 (한국임업진흥원 산림탄소인증센터) ;
  • 이영진 (공주대학교 산림자원학과)
  • Received : 2013.04.25
  • Accepted : 2013.11.01
  • Published : 2013.12.31
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Abstract

The purpose of this study was to calculate uncertainty of emission factor collected data and to evaluate the applicability of Monte Carlo simulation technique. To estimate the distribution of emission factors (Such as Basic wood density, Biomass expansion factor, and Root-to-shoot ratio), four probability density functions (Normal, Lognormal, Gamma, and Weibull) were used. The two sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and cumulative density figure were used to compare the optimal probability density function. It was observed that the basic wood density showed the gamma distribution, the biomass expansion factor results the log-normal distribution, and root-shoot ratio showd the normal distribution for Pinus densiflora in the Gangwon region; the basic wood density was the normal distribution, the biomass expansion factor was the gamma distribution, and root-shoot ratio was the gamma distribution for Pinus densiflora in the central region, respectively. The uncertainty assessment of emission factor were upper 62.1%, lower -52.6% for Pinus densiflora in the Gangwon region and upper 43.9%, lower -34.5% for Pinus densiflora in the central region, respectively.

본 연구의 목적은 몬테 카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용하여 소나무 탄소배출계수 자료의 확률밀도를 추정하고 불확도를 제시하는데 있다. 이용된 탄소배출계수는 목재기본밀도, 바이오매스확장계수, 뿌리함량비이고 4개의 확률밀도 함수(정규분포, 로그정규분포, 감마분포, 와이불 분포)를 고려하였다. 2-표본 콜모그로프-스미르노프 검정통계량과 누적밀도그림을 비교하여 최적의 확률밀도함수를 선정하고 상한과 하한의 불확도를 제시하였다. 본 연구의 결과에 의하면, 각 탄소배출계수에서 추정된 확률밀도함수는 강원지방소나무에서 목재기본밀도는 감마분포, 바이오매스확장계수는 로그정규분포, 뿌리함량비는 정규분포이고 중부지방소나무에서 목재기본밀도는 정규분포, 바이오매스확장계수는 감마분포, 뿌리함량비는 감마분포를 나타내었다. 강원지방소나무 탄소배출계수의 불확도는 상한에서 62.1%, 하한에서 -52.6%이고 중부지방소나무는 상한에서 43.9%, 하한에서 -34.5%를 나타내었다.

Keywords

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