한국수자원학회논문집 (Journal of Korea Water Resources Association)

  • 제46권12호
  • /
  • Pages.1141-1155
  • /
  • 2013
  • /
  • 2799-8746(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2799-8754(eISSN)
한국수자원학회 (Korea Water Resources Association)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

안동-임하댐 연계운영을 통한 미래 기후변화 대응

Coping with Climage Change through Coordinated Operations of the Andong & Imha Dams

  • 박준형 (서울대학교 건설환경공학부) ;
  • 김영오 (서울대학교 건설환경공학부)
  • Park, Junehyeong (Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engrg., Seoul National Univ.) ;
  • Kim, Young-Oh (Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engrg., Seoul National Univ.)
  • 투고 : 2012.12.20
  • 심사 : 2013.10.17
  • 발행 : 2013.12.31
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

최근에 이르러 기후변화에 따른 급격한 지구온난화에 대비하기 위해 많은 연구가 수행되고 있으며, 본 연구에서는 임하-안동댐 유역을 대상으로 미래 유량 변화에 대응하기 위한 다목적댐 운영 전략에 관하여 연구하였다. 미래 유량 전망결과를 이용하여 댐군을 연계운영하고 그 영향을 단독 댐 운영방법과 비교하여 평가하였다. 먼저 기후변화의 불확실성을 고려하기 위해 GCM와 통계학적 축소화 기법인 일기발생기 LARS-WG, 유출전망 모형abcd에 적용하여 미래 전망 댐 유입량을 산정하였다. 수위운영방법이 기존 댐운영방법에 대한 모의로 선정되었으며, 대안으로서 New York City rule을 적용한 선형계획법의 댐군 연계운영 모형을 적용하였다. 미래 유입량 전망결과는 과거의 연 총 유입량에 비하여 안동댐에서 평균72.81%, 임하댐에서 평균 65.65%감소하였다. 미래 유입량 전망자료를 댐 운영모형에 적용한 결과, 연계운영한 결과의 신뢰도가 평균 62.22%로 단독 운영 결과의 신뢰도 47.55%에 비해 GCM 종류에 상관없이 전반적으로 높았다. 특히 수량부족으로 인해 신뢰도가 낮은 경우, 편차는 더 크게 나타났다. 따라서 안동-임하 댐군에 연계운영을 적용하는 것이 상대적으로 기후변화에 따른 수량의 변화에 더 효율적으로 대응할 수 있음을 확인하였다.

A number of studies have been performed to analyze climate change impacts of water resources system. In this study, a coordinated dam operation is compared with an existing operation strategy for coping with projected future runoff scenarios. GCMs (Global Circulation Models) and the LARS-WG downscaling method was used to project future climate scenarios. The water balance model called abcd was employed to estimate future runoff scenarios. The existing dam operation comes from the national dam construction guideline, which is called the "level-operation method." The alternative coordinated dam operation are constructed as a linear programming using New York City rule for refill and drawdown seasons. The results of annual total inflow in future is projected to decrease to 72.81% for Andong dam basin and 65.65% for Imha dam basin. As a result of applying future runoff scenarios into the dam operation model, the reliability of coordinated dam operation, 62.22%, is higher than the reliability of single dam operation, 46.55%. Especially, the difference gets larger as the reliability is low because of lack of water. Therefore, the coordinated operation in the Andong & Imha dams are identified as more appropriate alternative than the existing single operation to respond to water-level change caused by climate change.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Ahn, J.H., Yoo, C., and Yoon, Y.N. (2001). An analysis of hydrologic changes in Dacheong Dam basin using GCMsimulation results due to global warming. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 34, No. 4, pp. 335-345.
  2. Ahn, S.R., Lee, Y.J., Park, G.A., and Kim, S.J. (2008). Analysis of future land use and climate change impact on stream discharge. Journal of Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 28, No. 2B, pp. 215-224.
  3. Anwer, S., Yu, B., and Nabi, G. (2012). "Application of weather generator for environmental parameters estimation for upper indus basin." Soil Environ, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 11-20.
  4. Arnell, N.W. (1992). "Factors controlling the effects of climate change on river flow regimes in a humid temperate environment." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 20, No. 8, pp. 321-342.
  5. Bae, D.H., Jung, I.W., and Lee, B.J. (2007). Outlook on variation of water resources in Korea under SRES A2 scenario. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 40, No. 12, pp. 921-930. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2007.40.12.921
  6. Bower, B.T., Hufschmidt, M.M., and Reedy, W.H. (1962). "Operating procedures: Their role in the design and implementation of water resource systems by simulation analysis." in Design of Water Resources System, chap. 11, edited by A. Maass et al., Havard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., pp. 443-458.
  7. Clark, E.J. (1950). "New York control curves." Journal of American Water Works Association, Vol. 42, No. 9, pp. 823-827.
  8. Dehn, M., Burger, G., Buma, J., and Gasparetto, P. (2000). "Impact of climate change on slope stability using expanded downscaling." Engineering Geology, Vol. 55, No. 3, pp. 193-204. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-7952(99)00123-4
  9. Elsgaard, L., Borgesen, C.D., Olesen, J.E., Siebert, Ewert, S.F., Peltonen-Sainio, P., Rotter, R.P., and Skjelva, A.O. (2012). "Shifts in comparative advantages for maize, oat and wheat cropping under climate change in Europe." Food Additives & Contaminants: Part A, Vol. 29, No. 10, pp. 1514-1526. https://doi.org/10.1080/19440049.2012.700953
  10. Gleick, P.H. (1986). "Methods for evaluating the regional hydrologic impacts of global climatic changes." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 88, pp. 97-116. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(86)90199-X
  11. Guo, S., Wang, J., Xiong, L., Ying, A., and Li, D. (2002). "A macro-scale and semi-distributed monthly water balance model to predict climate change impacts in China." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 268, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00075-6
  12. Hashimoto, T., Stedinger, J.R., and Loucks, D.P. (1982). "Reliability, Resiliency, and Vulnerability Criteria For Water Resource System Performance Evaluation." Water Resources Research, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 14-20. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR018i001p00014
  13. Hashmi, M.Z., Shamseldin, A.Y., and Melville, B.W. (2012). "Comparison of SDSM and LARS-WG for simulation and downscaling of extreme precipitation events in a watershed." Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, Vol. 25, pp. 475-484.
  14. Hoglind, M., Thorsen, S.M., Semenov, M.A. (2012). "Assessing uncertainties in impact of climate change on grass production in Northern Europe using ensembles of global climate models." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.02.010
  15. Hwang, J.S. (2005). Investigating Applicability of Monthly Water Balance Models for Climate Change Impact Assessment, Master thesis, Seoul National University.
  16. Hwang, J.S., Jeong, D.I., Lee, J.K., and Kim, Y.O. (2007). Application of monthly water balance models for the climate change impact assessment. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 40, No. 2, pp. 147-158. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2007.40.2.147
  17. Jiang, T., Y. D. Chen, C. Xu, X. Chen, X. Chen, V., and Singh, P. (2007). "Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang Basin, South China." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 336, pp. 316-333. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.01.010
  18. Johnson, S.A., Stedinger, J.R., and Staschus, K. (1991). "Heuristic Operating Policies for Reservoir System Simulation."Water Resources Research, Vol. 27, No. 5, pp. 673-685. https://doi.org/10.1029/91WR00320
  19. Kang, D.H. (2007). An Impact Assessment of Climate Change of Water Resources for the Geum River Basin, Master thesis, Seoul National University.
  20. Kim, B.S., Kim, H.S., Seoh, B.H., and Kim, N.W. (2004). Impact of climate change on Yongdam Dam basin. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 37, No. 2, pp. 185-193. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2004.37.3.185
  21. Kim, B.S., Kim, S.J., Kim, H.S., and Jun, H.D. (2010) An impact assessment of climate and landuse change on water resources in the Han River. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 43, No. 3, pp. 309-323. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2010.43.3.309
  22. Kim, Y.O. (1998). Incorporating climate change scenarios into water resources management. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 31, No. 4, pp. 407-413.
  23. Korea Institute of Construction and Transportation Technology Evaluation and Planning (2012). Climate Change Assessment & Projection for Hydrology in Korea, Korea Institute of Construction and Transportation Technology Evaluation and Planning.
  24. Lee, D.R., Kim. U.T., and Yoo, C. (2004). Climate change impacts on meteorological drought and flood. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 37, No. 4, pp. 315-328. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2004.37.4.315
  25. Lee, G.M., Lee, S.Y., and Lee, E.R. (2010). Water supply and reliability increment by dams connection, 2010 KWRA Academic Conference, pp. 317-321.
  26. Lee, J.K., and Kim, Y.O. (2011). Evaluation of the uncertainty of GCM scenarios: Application of maximum entropy, 2011 KSCCR Academic Conference, pp. 46-47.
  27. Lund, J.R., and Guzman, J. (1999). "Some Derived Operating Rules for Reservoirs in Series or in Parallel." Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 125, No. 3, pp. 143-153. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1999)125:3(143)
  28. Madsen, M.S., Maule, C.F., Mackellar, N., Olesen, J.E., and Christensen, J.H. (2012). "Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling." Food Additives & Contaminants: Part A, Vol. 29, No. 10, pp. 1502-1513. https://doi.org/10.1080/19440049.2012.712059
  29. McCabe, Jr., G.J., and Ayers, M.A. (1989). "Hydrologic effects of climate change in the delaware river basin." Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 25, No. 6, pp. 1231-1242. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1989.tb01335.x
  30. Ministry of Environment (2006). Prediction and impact assessment of water cycle with climate change.
  31. Ministry of Science and Technology (2011). The Criteria of Dam Design, Ministry of Science and Technology.
  32. Ministry of Science and Technology (2007). Technology for climate change impact assessment on water resources, Ministry of Science and Technology.
  33. Minville, M., Brissette, F., Krau, S., and Leconte, R. (2009). "Adaptation to Climate Change in the Management of a Canadian Water-Resources System Exploited for Hydropower."Water Resources Management, Vol. 23, pp. 2965-2986. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-009-9418-1
  34. Minville, M., Brissette, F., Krau, S., and Leconte, R. (2010). "Impacts and Uncertainty of Climage Change on Water Resource Management of the Peribonka River System(canada)." Journal of Water Resources Planning Management, doi:10-1061/(ASCE)WR. 1943-5462.0000041, pp. 376-385.
  35. Paredes, J., and Lund, J.R. (2006). "Refill and Drawdown Rules for Parallel Reservoirs: Quantity and Quality." Water Resources Management, Vol. 20, pp. 359-376. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-0325-4
  36. Park, K.S. (2009). Scenario-based Effect Analysis of Alternatives for Integrated Watershed Management Considering Climate and Landuse Changes, Master thesis, Seoul National University.
  37. Racsko, P., Szeidl, L., and Semenov, M.A. (1991). "A serial approach to local stochastic weather models." Ecological Modelling, Vol. 57, No. 1-2, pp. 27-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3800(91)90053-4
  38. Rahman, M., Bolisetti, T., and Balachandar, R. (2012). "Hydrologic modelling to assess the climate change impacts in a Southern Ontario watershed." Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp. 91-103. https://doi.org/10.1139/l11-112
  39. Raje, D., and Mujumdar, P.P. (2010). "Reservoir Performance under Uncertainty in Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change." Advanced in Water Resources, Vol. 33, pp. 312-326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2009.12.008
  40. Rietveld, M.R. (1978). "A new method for estimating the regression coefficients in the formula relating solar radiation to sunshine." Agricultural Meteorology, Vol. 19, No. 2-3, pp. 243-252. https://doi.org/10.1016/0002-1571(78)90014-6
  41. Semenov, M.A., and Brooks, R.J. (1999). "Spatial interpolation of the LARS-WG weather generator in Great Britain." Climate Research, Vol. 11, pp. 137-148. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr011137
  42. Semenov, M.A., Brooks, R.J., Barrow, E.M., and Richardson, C.W. (1998). "Comparison of theWGEN and LARS-WG stochastic weather generators for diverse climates." Climate Research, Vol. 10, pp. 95-107. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr010095
  43. Seo, Y.W., Lee, S.H., Kim, Y.O., and Lee, D.R. (2000). "Climate Change Assessment for Reservoir Operations of Dae-Chung Dam." 2000 KSCE Academic Conference, pp. 427-430.
  44. Thomas, H.A. (1981). Improved Methods for National Water Assessment. Report, WR15249270, U.S. Water Resource. Council, Washinton, D.C.
  45. Trabucco, A., Zomer, R.J., Bossio, D.A., Straaten, O.V., and Verchot, L.V. (2008). "Climatechange mitigation through afforestation/reforestation: A global analysis of hydrologic impacts with four case studies." Agriculture, Ecosystem & Environment, Vol. 126, pp. 81-97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2008.01.015
  46. Vicuna, S., Maurer, E.P., Joyce, B., Dracup, J.A., and Purkey, D. (2007). "The Sensitivity of California Water Resources to Climate Change Scenarios." Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 43, No. 2, pp. 482-498. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2007.00038.x
  47. Yoo, S.H., Choi, J.Y., Nam, W.H., and Hong, E. (2012). "Analysis of design water requirement of paddy rice using frequency analysis affected by climate change in South Korea." Agricultural Water Management, Vol. 112, pp. 33-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2012.06.002

피인용 문헌

  1. Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Imha-Dam Watershed Hydrologic Cycle under RCP Scenarios vol.18, pp.1, 2015, https://doi.org/10.11108/kagis.2015.18.1.156