환경영향평가 (Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment)

한국환경영향평가학회 (Korean Society of Environmental Impact Assessment)
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기후변화에 따른 수도권 산림의 순일차생산량과 토양탄소저장량의 시공간적 변화 추정

Estimation of Spatial-Temporal Net Primary Productivity and Soil Carbon Storage Change in the Capital area of South Korea under Climate Change

  • 권선순 (이화여자대학교 환경공학과) ;
  • 최선희 (이화여자대학교 환경공학과) ;
  • 이상돈 (이화여자대학교 환경공학과)
  • Kwon, Sun-Soon (Dept. of Environmental Science & Engineering, College of Engineering, Ewha Womans University) ;
  • Choi, Sun-Hee (Dept. of Environmental Science & Engineering, College of Engineering, Ewha Womans University) ;
  • Lee, Sang-Don (Dept. of Environmental Science & Engineering, College of Engineering, Ewha Womans University)
  • 투고 : 2012.08.29
  • 심사 : 2012.09.25
  • 발행 : 2012.10.31
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초록

The purpose of this study was to estimate the spatial-temporal NPP(Net Primary Productivity) and SCS(Soil Carbon Storage) of forest ecosystem under climate change in the capital area of South Korea using Mapss-Century1 (MC1), one of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). The characteristics of the NPP and SCS changes were simulated based on a biogeochemical module in this model. As results of the simulation, the NPP varies from 2.02 to 7.43 tC $ha^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$ and the SCS varies from 34.55 to 84.81 tC $ha^{-1}$ during 1971~2000 respectively. Spatial mean NPP showed a little decreasing tendency in near future (2021~2050) and then increased in far future (2071~2100) under the condition of increasing air temperature and precipitation which were simulated by the A1B climate change scenario of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But it was estimated that the temporal change of spatial mean NPP indicates 4.62% increasing tendency in which elevation is over 150m in this area. However, spatial mean SCS was decreased in the two future periods under same climate condition.

키워드

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