Ocean and Polar Research

  • 제34권2호
  • /
  • Pages.239-251
  • /
  • 2012
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  • 1598-141X(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2234-7313(eISSN)
한국해양과학기술원 (Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology)
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기후변화로 인한 신지도 근해 해양먹이망 변동예측

Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Sinjido Marine Food Web

  • 강윤호 ((주)코스코 해양기술연구소) ;
  • 주세종 (한국해양과학기술원 심해저자원연구부) ;
  • 박영규 (한국해양과학기술원 해양순환.기후연구부)
  • Kang, Yun-Ho (Ocean Technology Research Institute, Korean Ocean Search Salvage Company) ;
  • Ju, Se-Jong (Deep-sea and Seabed Resources Research Division, KIOST) ;
  • Park, Young-Gyu (Ocean Circulation and Climate Research Division, KIOST)
  • 투고 : 2012.04.18
  • 심사 : 2012.05.23
  • 발행 : 2012.06.30
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초록

The food web dynamics in a coastal ecosystem of Korea were predicted with Ecosim, a trophic flow model, under various scenarios of primary productivity due to ocean warming and ocean acidification. Changes in primary productivity were obtained from an earth system model 2.1 under A1B scenario of IPCC $CO_2$ emission and replaced for forcing functions on the phytoplankton group during the period between 2020 and 2100. Impacts of ocean acidification on species were represented in the model for gastropoda, bivalvia, echinodermata, crustacean and cephalopoda groups with effect sizes of conservative, medium and large. The model results show that the total biomass of invertebrate and fish groups decreases 5%, 11~28% and 14~27%, respectively, depending on primary productivity, ocean acidification and combined effects. In particular, the blenny group shows zero biomass at 2080. The zooplankton group shows a sudden increase at the same time, and finally reaches twice the baseline at 2100. On the other hand, the ecosystem attributes of the mean trophic level of the ecosystem, Shannon's H and Kempton's Q indexes show a similar reduction pattern to biomass change, indicating that total biomass, biodiversity and evenness shrink dynamically by impacts of climate change. It is expected from the model results that, after obtaining more information on climate change impacts on the species level, this study will be helpful for further investigation of the food web dynamics in the open seas around Korea.

키워드

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피인용 문헌

  1. The Economic Feasibility Analysis of Grow out Phase Production of Oyster Farming by Rising Water Temperature vol.36, pp.2, 2014, https://doi.org/10.4217/OPR.2014.36.2.157
  2. Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Marine Ecosystem in the South Sea of Korea II vol.35, pp.2, 2013, https://doi.org/10.4217/OPR.2013.35.2.123