Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in Namgang Dam Watershed

남강댐 유역에서의 기후변화에 대한 유출 영향

  • Lee, Jong-Mun (K-water Institute, Korea Water Resources Corporation) ;
  • Kim, Young-Do (Department of Environmental Science and Engineering (Nakdong River Environmental Research Center), Inje University) ;
  • Kang, Boo-Sik (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Dankook University) ;
  • Yi, Hye-Suk (K-water Institute, Korea Water Resources Corporation)
  • 이종문 (한국수자원공사 K-water연구원, 인제대학교 환경공학부) ;
  • 김영도 (인제대학교 환경공학부(낙동강유역환경연구센터)) ;
  • 강부식 (단국대학교 토목환경공학과) ;
  • 이혜숙 (한국수자원공사 K-water연구원)
  • Received : 2012.02.12
  • Accepted : 2012.03.08
  • Published : 2012.06.30
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Abstract

Climate change can impact hydrologic processes of a watershed system. The integrated modeling systems need to be built to predict and analyze the possible impacts of climate change on water environment for the optimal water resource operation and management. In this study, Namgang Dam watershed in the Nakdong River basin was selected as a study area. To evaluate the vulnerability of Namgang Dam watershed caused by climate change, the change in hydrologic runoff were predicted using the watershed model, SWAT. The RCM scenario was analyzed and downscaled using the artificial neural network and the dynamic quantile mapping. The results of this study will be utilized for suggesting an effective counterplan for climate change, and finally to propose the optimal water resource management method.

기후변화는 유역의 수문과정에 영향을 줄 수 있으며, 최적의 수자원 관리를 위해서는 이와 같은 기후변화로 인한 수환경 영향을 예측 및 분석하기 위한 통합적인 모의체계의 구축이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 낙동강 수계의 남강댐 유역을 대상지역으로 선정하여, 기후변화 취약성을 평가하기 위하여 SWAT 모형을 이용하여 유출량 변화를 예측하였다. 기후시나리오 생산을 위하여 지역기후모형(RCM)의 분석 및 인공신경망을 통한 상세화기법을 적용하여 예측인자들에 대한 모의결과로부터 미래 기상자료를 구축하였다. 또한 강우의 경우 총량에 대한 보정을 위해 분위사상법을 적용하였다. 이와같은 시나리오를 검보정이 완료된 SWAT 모형에 적용하여 기후변화에 따른 유출량 변화를 예측하였다. 본 연구의 결과를 이용하여 기후변화에 대한 효율적인 대책을 제시하여 최적의 수자원관리방안을 도출할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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