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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Interdecadal Variability and Future Change in Spring Precipitation over South Korea

한반도 봄철 강수량의 장기변동과 미래변화

  • Kim, Go-Un (Division of Earth Environmental System, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University) ;
  • Ok, Jung (Division of Earth Environmental System, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University) ;
  • Seo, Kyong-Hwan (Division of Earth Environmental System, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University) ;
  • Han, Sang-Dae (Division of Earth Environmental System, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University)
  • 김고운 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부 대기환경과학과) ;
  • 옥정 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부 대기환경과학과) ;
  • 서경환 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부 대기환경과학과) ;
  • 한상대 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부 대기환경과학과)
  • Received : 2012.07.17
  • Accepted : 2012.11.13
  • Published : 2012.12.31
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Abstract

This study presents the long-term variability of spring precipitation over the Korean peninsula. It is found that the significant interdecadal change in the spring precipitation has occurred around year 1991. Over the Korean peninsula the precipitation for the post-1991 period increased by about 30 mm per year in CMAP and station-measured data compared to the precipitation prior to year 1991. Due to an increased baroclinicity during the later period, the low-level negative pressure anomaly has developed with its center over northern Japan. Korea is situated at the western end of the negative pressure anomaly, receiving moisture from westerly winds and producing more precipitation. Also, we estimate the change in the near future (years 2020~2040) spring precipitation using six best performing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) models. These best model ensemble mean shows that spring precipitation is anticipated to increase by about 4% due to the strengthened westerlies accompanied by the northwestern enhancement of the North Pacific subtropical high.

Keywords

References

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