한국농공학회논문집 (Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers)

  • 제54권3호
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  • Pages.149-157
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  • 2012
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  • 1738-3692(pISSN)
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  • 2093-7709(eISSN)
한국농공학회 (The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers)
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기후변화에 따른 낙동강 유역 농업용수 영향 분석

Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water in Nakdong-river Watershed

  • 지용근 (한국환경정책.평가연구원 정책연구본부 물환경연구실) ;
  • 이진희 (한국환경정책.평가연구원 환경평가본부 환경평가1실) ;
  • 김상단 (부경대학교 환경공학과)
  • 투고 : 2012.03.16
  • 심사 : 2012.05.21
  • 발행 : 2012.05.31
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초록

For the systemic management and planning of future agricultural water resources, deriving and analyzing the various results of climate change are necessary to respond the uncertainties of climate change. This study assessed the impact of climate change on the rainfall, temperature, and agricultural water requirement targeting in the Nakdong-river's basin periodically according to socioeconomic driving factors under the scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) through the various IPCC GCMs. As a result of future rainfall change (2011~2100), increasing or decreasing tendency of rainfall change for future periods did not show a clear trend for three rainfall observatories, Daegu, Busan and Gumi. The characteristics of the temperature change consistently show a tendency to increase, and in the case of Daegu observatory, high temperature growth was shown. Especially, it was increased by 93.3 % in the period of future3 (2071~2100) for A2 scenario. According to the scenario and periodic analyses on the agricultural water demand, which was thought to be dependent on rainfall and temperature, the agricultural water demand increased at almost every period except during the Period Future1 (2011~2040) with different increase sizes, and the scenario-specific results were shown to be similar. As for areas, the agricultural water demand showed more changes in the sub-basin located by the branch of Nakdong-river than at the mainstream of the River.

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참고문헌

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피인용 문헌

  1. Uncertainty of Water Supply in Agricultural Reservoirs Considering the Climate Change vol.56, pp.2, 2014, https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2014.56.2.011
  2. Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Impact Assessment using Bias-Correction Technique for Future Climate Scenarios vol.55, pp.4, 2013, https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2013.55.4.095
  3. Projection of Future Water Supply Sustainability in Agricultural Reservoirs under RCP Climate Change Scenarios vol.56, pp.4, 2014, https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2014.56.4.059
  4. Application of a Non-stationary Frequency Analysis Method for Estimating Probable Precipitation in Korea vol.54, pp.5, 2012, https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2012.54.5.141