IE interfaces (산업공학)

Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers (대한산업공학회)
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A Study on Forecasting the Diffusion of Certified Testing Service Institutions and Direction of Policy Making in Defense Industry

방산분야 공인시험기관의 수요확산 예측 및 정책 방향 연구

  • Lee, Yong-Hak (Graduate School, Kwangwoon University) ;
  • Cho, Hyun-Ki (Graduate School of Public Policy and Information Technology, Seoul National University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Kim, Woo-Je (Dept. of Industrial and Information Systems Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Kang, Cho-Rong (Korean Agency for Technology and Standards)
  • 이용학 (광운대학교 대학원) ;
  • 조현기 (서울과학기술대학교 IT정책전문대학원) ;
  • 김우제 (서울과학기술대학교 산업정보시스템공학과) ;
  • 강초롱 (기술표준원)
  • Received : 2011.09.27
  • Accepted : 2011.11.08
  • Published : 2012.06.01
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Abstract

In order to ensure the reliability and specialty of weapon system test results, a policy of extending certified testing service institutions has been driven by applying accreditation system of the ones in defense industry. Bass and Logistic models are used to apply the policy effectively and forecast the diffusion pattern of certified testing service institutions. The parameters for diffusion forecast are estimated using the diffusion pattern of certified testing service institutions in non-defense industry, and these are applied to forecast the diffusion of certified ones in defense industry. Coefficients of innovation and imitation of Bass model are analyzed to derive the factors influencing the early adoption and diffusion patterns. The more increasing the coefficients, the earlier adoption occurred. Diffusion pattern due to coefficient of imitation, internal factor, has larger effect on sensitivity of diffusion pattern. This means that the self recognition of necessity is more effectively worked than the policy or regulations driven by government.

Keywords

References

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