Korean Journal of Remote Sensing (대한원격탐사학회지)

Korean Society of Remote Sensing (대한원격탐사학회)
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Environmental Impact Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident using Spatial Information Modeling: A Case Study of Chernobyl

공간정보 모델링을 이용한 원전 사고의 환경 영향 평가: 체르노빌 사례연구

  • Lee, Sang-Won (Dept. of Geoinformatic Engineering, Inha University) ;
  • Song, Ah-Ram (Dept. of Geoinformatic Engineering, Inha University) ;
  • Park, No-Wook (Dept. of Geoinformatic Engineering, Inha University)
  • 이상원 (인하대학교 지리정보공학과) ;
  • 송아람 (인하대학교 지리정보공학과) ;
  • 박노욱 (인하대학교 지리정보공학과)
  • Received : 2012.01.10
  • Accepted : 2012.02.11
  • Published : 2012.02.29
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Abstract

This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of advanced spatial modeling techniques for environmental monitoring and impact assessment through a case study of Chernobyl nuclear accident occurred in 1986. Land-cover types changed after the accident are analysed by a post classification comparison method using bi-temporal Landsat TM data acquired in 1986 and 1992 near the accident site. Spatial modeling including various kriging algorithms are also applied to analyze the relationships between Cesium concentrations in soil and thyroid cancer incidence rates in Belarus, which was greatly damaged by the accident. The change detection results clearly showed the decrease of croplands and the increase of abandoned lands, and concrete structures were newly built around the nuclear plant to prevent the spread of radioactive contamination. In Belarus, high Cesium concentrations were observed in southern areas with high thyroid cancer risk estimated by Poisson kriging. Geographically weighted regression, which could account for geographic variations of independent variables including Cesium concentrations and distances from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, was applied to extract the relationships between the independent variables and the thyroid cancer risk. The estimated risk values showed a correlation coefficient value of 0.98 with respect to the thyroid cancer risk values, which implied that the thyroid cancer risk in Belarus was affected by the accident. In conclusion, it is expected that advanced spatial modeling techniques applied in this study would be useful for environmental impact assessment and public health research.

이 논문은 1986년에 발생한 체르노빌 원전 사고 사례연구를 통해 환경 모니터링과 영향 평가를 위한 고급 공간정보 모델링 기술의 유용성을 예시하였다. 사고지점 주변에서 1986년과 1992년에 촬영된 Landsat TM 영상자료를 대상으로 선분류 후비교법을 적용하여 변화가 크게 일어난 지역과 토지피복 변화 양상을 분석하였다. 그리고 이 사고의 가장 큰 피해지역으로 알려진 벨로루시 지역을 대상으로 다양한 크리깅 기법을 포함한 공간 모델링 기법을 적용하여 토양 내 세슘 농도와 갑상선 암 발병률 자료와의 상관성을 분석하였다. 변화 탐지 결과, 농경지 면적의 감소와 황무지 면적의 증가가 가장 뚜렷하게 나타났고, 방사능 오염의 확산을 막기 위한 콘크리트 구조물들이 새롭게 생겨난 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 벨로루시 지역의 영향평가 결과, 세슘 오염이 심한 원전 인근 지역에서 포아송 크리깅에 의해 추정된 위험도가 상대적으로 높게 나타났다. 세슘 농도와 사고지점과의 거리를 독립 변수로 사용하여 이 변수들의 공간 변화 양상을 반영할 수 있는 지리적 가중 회귀분석을 적용하였다. 적용 결과, 갑상선 암 위험도와 상관계수 0.98을 나타내는 갑상선 암 발병 위험도 추정이 가능하였으며, 이는 원전 사고가 갑상선 암 발병 위험도에 영향을 준 것을 의미한다. 결론적으로 이 연구에서 적용한 공간정보 모델링 기법들은 환경 영향 평가 및 환경 보건 분야에서 유용하게 사용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

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