DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

기후변화 시나리오 (A1B)에 따른 농업용 저수지 유역의 미래 토지피복변화 예측 및 논 면적 변화 특성 분석

Prediction of Land-cover Changes and Analysis of Paddy Fields Changes Based on Climate Change Scenario (A1B) in Agricultural Reservoir Watersheds

  • 오윤경 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학) ;
  • 유승환 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학) ;
  • 이상현 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 지역시스템공학전공) ;
  • 박나영 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 지역시스템공학전공) ;
  • 최진용 (서울대학교 조경.지역시스템공학부, 농업생명과학연구원) ;
  • 윤동균 (한국농어촌공사 농어촌연구원 수자원연구팀)
  • 투고 : 2012.01.10
  • 심사 : 2012.03.06
  • 발행 : 2012.03.31

초록

This study was aim to predict future land-cover changes and to analyze regional land-cover changes in irrigation areas and agricultural reservoir watersheds under climate change scenario. To simulate the future land-cover under climate change scenario - A1B of the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios), Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects) was applied for modeling of competition among land-use types in relation to socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. For the study areas, 8 agricultural reservoirs were selected from 8 different provinces covering all around nation. The simulation results from 2010 to 2100 suggested future land-cover changes under the scenario conditions. For Madun reservoir in Gyeonggi-do, total decrease amount of paddy area was a similar amount of 'Base demand scenario' of Water Vision 2020 published by MLTMA (Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs), while the decrease amounts of paddy areas in other sites were less than the amount of 'High demand scenario' of Water Vision 2020. Under A1B scenario, all the land-cover results showed only slight changes in irrigation areas of agricultural reservoirs and most of agricultural reservoir watersheds will be increased continuously for forest areas. This approach could be useful for evaluating and simulating agricultural water demand in relation to land-use changes.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Ahn, S. R., Lee, Y. J., G. A. Park, and S. J. Kim, 2008. Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impact on Stream Discharge, Journal of Korean Society of Civil Engineers 28(2): 215-224 (in Korean).
  2. Choi, J. Y.. 2010. Analysis of land-use change and water requirement for paddy rice affected by climate change, 13. Rural Research Institute (RRI) (in Korean).
  3. Doll, P., 2002. Impact of climate change and variability on irrigation requirements: a global perspective. Climate Change 54: 269-293. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016124032231
  4. Hong, E. M., Choi, J. Y., Lee, S. H., S. H. Yoo, and M. S. Kang, 2009. Estimation of paddy rice evapotranspiration considering climate change using LARS-WG. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 51(3): 25-35 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2009.51.3.025
  5. IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  6. Kim, S. J. and Y. J. Lee, 2007, The Effect of Spatial Scale and Resolution in the Prediction of Future Land Use Using CA-Markov Technique, Journal of The Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies 10(2): 58-70 (in Korean).
  7. Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), 2008. Understanding of climate change and application of climate change scenario (1). Korea Meteorological Administration (in Korean).
  8. Korea Statistical Information System (KOSIS), 2006. Population projections for Korea. http:/kosis.kr/nsportal/ ups/ups_01List01.jsp.
  9. Lambin, E. F. and H. J. Geist (ed), 2006. Land-use and land-cover change. Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York.
  10. Lee, Y. J. and S. J. Kim, 2007. Surveying and Geo- Spatial Information Engineering : A Modified CA-Markov Technique for Prediction of Future Land Use Change. Journal of Korean Society of Civil Engineers 27(6): 809-817 (in Korean).
  11. Lee, Y. J., An, S. R., B. S. Kang, and S. J. Kim, 2008a, Assessment of Future Climate and Land Use Change Impact on Hydrology and Stream Water Quality of Anseongcheon Watershed Using SWAT Model (II), Journal of Korean Society of Civil Engineers 28(6): 665-673 (in Korean).
  12. Lee, Y. J., Park, J. Y., M. J. Park, and S. J. Kim, 2008b, Assessment of Future Climate and Land Use Change Impact on Hydrology and Stream Water Quality of Anseongcheon Watershed Using SWAT Model (I), Journal of Korean Society of Civil Engineers 28(6): 653-663 (in Korean).
  13. Lim, H. J., Kwon, H. J., D. H. Bae, and S. J. Kim, 2006, Analysis of Hydrological Impact Using Climate Change Scenarios and the CA-Markov Technique on Soyanggang-dam Watershed, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 39(5): 453-466. (in Korean) https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2006.39.5.453
  14. Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affair (MLTMA), 2006. Water Vision 2020, 28-48 (in Korean).
  15. Morita, T., Matsuoka, Y., Jiang, K., Masui, T., Takahashi, K., M. Kainuma, and R. Pandey, 1999. Quantification of IPCC-SRES storyline using the AIM/EMISSIONLINKAGE model. the IPCC Modeler Meeting of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios.
  16. Oh, Y.-G., Choi, J.-Y., Bae, S.-J., Yoo, S.-H. and S.-H. Lee, 2010a. Research Paper : A Probability Mapping for Land Cover Change Prediction using CLUE Model. Journal of the Korean Society of Rural Planning (KSRP) 16(2): 47-55 (in Korean).
  17. Oh, Y.-G., Choi, J.-Y., Yoo, S.-H. and S.-H. Lee, 2011. Prediction of Land-cover Change Based on Climate Change Scenarios and Regional Characteristics using Cluster Analysis. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 53(6): 34-41 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2011.53.6.031
  18. Oh, Y.-G., Yoo, S.-H., S.-H. Lee, and J.-Y. Choi, 2010b. Prediction of paddy field change based on climate change scenarios using the CLUE model. Paddy and Water Environment 9(3): 309-323. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-010-0244-0
  19. Park, G. A., Ahn, S. R., Park, M. J. and S. J. Kim, 2010b, Assessment of the Contribution of Weather, Vegetation, Land Use Change for Agricultural Reservoir and Stream Watershed using the SLURP model (II) - Calibration, Validation and Application of the Model -, Journal of Korean Society of Civil Engineers 30(2): 121-135 (in Korean).
  20. Park, G. A., Anh, S. R., Lee, Y. J., Shin, H. J., Park, M. J., and S. J. Kim, 2009a, Assessment of Climate Change Impact on the Inflow and Outflow of Two Agricultural Reservoir in Korea, American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers 52(5): 1869-1883.
  21. Park, G. A., Lee, Y. J., Shin, H. J. and S. J. Kim, 2010a, Assessment of the Contribution of Weather, Vegetation, Land Use Change for Agricultural Reservoir and Stream Watershed using the SLURP model (I) - Preparation of Input Data for the Model -, Journal of Korean Society of Civil Engineers 30(2): 107-120 (in Korean).
  22. Park, G. A., Park, J. Y., Shin, H. J., Park, M. J. and S. J. Kim, 2010c, Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Water Storage During Storm Periods, Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 52(6): 27-37 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2010.52.6.027
  23. Park, G. A., Shin, H. J., Lee, M. S., Hong, W. Y. and, S. J. Kim, 2009b, Future potential impacts of climate change on agricultural watershed hydrology and the adaptation strategy of paddy rice irrigation reservoir by release control, Journal of the International Society of Paddy and Water Environment Engineering 7(4) (in Korean).
  24. Park, J. Y., Lee, M. S., Lee, Y. J. and S. J. Kim, 2008, The Analysis of Future Land Use Change Impact on Hydrology and Water Quality Using SWAT Model, Journal of Korean Society of Civil Engineers 28(2): 187-197 (in Korean).
  25. Schulp, C. J. E., G.-J. Nabuurs, and P. H. Verburg, 2008. Future carbon sequestration in Europe-Effects of land use change. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 127(3-4): 251-264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2008.04.010
  26. Verburg, P. H., De Koning, G. H. J., Kok, K., A. Veldkamp, and J. Bouma, 1999. A spatial explicit allocation procedure for modelling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use. Ecological Modelling 116(1): 45-61. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(98)00156-2
  27. Verburg, P. H., Soepboer, W., Veldkamp, A., Limpiada, R. V. Espaldon, and S. S. A Mastura, 2002. Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: The CLUE-S model. Environmental Management 30(3): 391-405. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-002-2630-x
  28. Yoo, S. H., 2009. Analyzing agricultural drought affected by climate change. Ph.D. diss. Seoul National University (in Korean).
  29. Yun, D. G,. 2009. A study on the impact assessment of climate change on agricultural water, 64-65. Rural Research Institute (RRI) (in Korean).
  30. Yun, D. K., S. O. Chung, and S. J. Kim, 2011. Climate change impacts on paddy water requirement. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 53(4): 39-47 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2011.53.4.037

피인용 문헌

  1. Climate change impacts on water storage requirements of an agricultural reservoir considering changes in land use and rice growing season in Korea vol.117, 2013, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2012.10.023