Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Prediction of Land-cover Changes and Analysis of Paddy Fields Changes Based on Climate Change Scenario (A1B) in Agricultural Reservoir Watersheds

기후변화 시나리오 (A1B)에 따른 농업용 저수지 유역의 미래 토지피복변화 예측 및 논 면적 변화 특성 분석

  • 오윤경 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학) ;
  • 유승환 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학) ;
  • 이상현 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 지역시스템공학전공) ;
  • 박나영 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 지역시스템공학전공) ;
  • 최진용 (서울대학교 조경.지역시스템공학부, 농업생명과학연구원) ;
  • 윤동균 (한국농어촌공사 농어촌연구원 수자원연구팀)
  • Received : 2012.01.10
  • Accepted : 2012.03.06
  • Published : 2012.03.31
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Abstract

This study was aim to predict future land-cover changes and to analyze regional land-cover changes in irrigation areas and agricultural reservoir watersheds under climate change scenario. To simulate the future land-cover under climate change scenario - A1B of the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios), Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects) was applied for modeling of competition among land-use types in relation to socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. For the study areas, 8 agricultural reservoirs were selected from 8 different provinces covering all around nation. The simulation results from 2010 to 2100 suggested future land-cover changes under the scenario conditions. For Madun reservoir in Gyeonggi-do, total decrease amount of paddy area was a similar amount of 'Base demand scenario' of Water Vision 2020 published by MLTMA (Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs), while the decrease amounts of paddy areas in other sites were less than the amount of 'High demand scenario' of Water Vision 2020. Under A1B scenario, all the land-cover results showed only slight changes in irrigation areas of agricultural reservoirs and most of agricultural reservoir watersheds will be increased continuously for forest areas. This approach could be useful for evaluating and simulating agricultural water demand in relation to land-use changes.

Keywords

References

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