Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Uncertainty of Agricultural product Prices by Information Entropy Model using Probability Distribution for Monthly Prices

월별 가격의 확률분포를 이용한 정보엔트로피 모델에 의한 농산물가격의 불확정성

  • 은상규 (서울대학교 조경.지역시스템공학부) ;
  • 정남수 (공주대학교 산업과학대학, 생물산업공학부) ;
  • 이정재 (서울대학교 생태조경.지역시스템공학부, 서울대학교 농업생명과학연구원) ;
  • 배연정 (서울대학교 조경.지역시스템공학부)
  • Received : 2011.10.12
  • Accepted : 2012.02.06
  • Published : 2012.03.31
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Abstract

To analyze any given situation, it is necessary to have information on elements which affect the situation. Particularly, there is greater variability in both frequency and magnitude of agricultural product prices as they are affected by various unpredictable factors such as weather conditions etc. This is the reason why it is difficult for the farmers to maintain their stable income through agricultural production and marketing. In this research, attempts are made to quantify the entropy of various situations inherent in the price changes so that the stability of farmers' income can be increased. Through this research, we developed an entropy model which can quantify the uncertainties of price changes using the probability distribution of price changes. The model was tested for its significance by comparing its simulation outcomes with actual ranges and standard deviations of price variations of the past using monthly agricultural product prices data. We confirmed that the simulation results reflected the features of the ranges and standard deviations of actual price variations. Also, it is possible for us to predict standard deviations for changed prices which will occur after a certain time using the information entropy obtained from relevant agricultural product price data before the time.

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