Journal of Distribution Research (한국유통학회지:유통연구)

Korean DIstribution Association (한국유통학회)
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A Study on the Effects of Meterological Factors on the Distribution of Agricultural Products: Focused on the Distribution of Chinese Cabbages

기상요인이 농산물 유통에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 배추 유통 사례를 중심으로

  • 이현정 (연세대학교 융합기술연구원) ;
  • 홍진환 (수원대학교 경상대학 경영학과)
  • Received : 2012.10.16
  • Accepted : 2012.12.05
  • Published : 2012.12.31
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Abstract

Agriculture is a primary industry that influenced by the weather or meterological factors more than other industry. Global warming and worldwide climate changes, and unusual weather phenomena are fatal in agricultural industry and human life. Therefore, many previous studies have been made to find the relationship between weather and the productivity of agriculture. Meterological factors also influence on the distribution of agricultural product. For example, price of agricultural product is determined in the market, and also influenced by the weather of the market. However, there is only a few study was made to find this link. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of meterological factors on the distribution of agricultural products, focusing on the distribution of chinese cabbages. Chinese cabbage is a main ingredient of Kimchi, and basic essential vegetable in Korean dinner table. However, the production of chinese cabbages is influenced by weather and very fluctuating so that the variation of its price is so unstable. Therefore, both consumers and farmers do not feel comfortable at the unstable price of chinese cabbages. In this study, we analyze the real transaction data of chinese cabbage in wholesale markets and meterological factors depending on the variety and geography. We collect and analyze data of meterological factors such as temperatures, humidity, cloudiness, rainfall, snowfall, wind speed, insolation, sunshine duration in producing and consuming region of chinese cabbages. The result of this study shows that the meterological factors such as temperature and humidity significantly influence on the volume and price of chinese cabbage transaction in wholesale market. Especially, the weather of consuming region has greater correlation effects on transaction than that of producing region in all types of chinese cabbages. Among the whole agricultural lifecycle of chinese cabbages, 'seeding - harvest - shipment - wholesale', meterological factors such as temperature and rainfall in shipment and wholesale period are significantly correlated with transaction volume and price of crops. Based on the result of correlation analysis, we make a regression analysis to verify the meterological factors' effects on the volume and price of chines cabbage transaction in wholesale market. The results of stepwise regression analysis are shown in

and
. The type of chinese cabbages are categorized by 5 types, i.e. alpine, gimjang for winter, spring, summer, and winter crop, and all of the regression models are shown significant relationship. In addition, meterological factors in shipment and wholesale period are entered more in regression model than those in seeding and harvest period. This result implies that weather in consuming region is also important in the distribution of chinese cabbages. Based on the result of this study, we find several implications and recommendations for policy makers of agricultural product distribution. The goal of agricultural product distribution policy is to insure proper price and production cost for farmers and provide proper price and quality, and stable supply for consumers. Therefore, coping with the uncertainty of weather is very essential to make a fruitful effect of the policy. In reality, very big part of consumer price of chinese cabbage is made up of the margin of intermediaries, because they take the risk. In addition, policy makers make efforts for farmers to utilize AWIS (Agricultural Weather Information System). In order to do that, it should integrate the relevant information including distribution and marketing as well as production. Offering a consulting service to farmers about weather management is also expected to be a good option in agriculture and weather industry. Reflecting on the result of this study, the distribution authorities can offer the guideline for the timing and volume of harvest, and it is expected to contribute to the stable equilibrium of supply and demand of agricultural products.

농업은 타 산업 대비 기상환경에 큰 영향을 받는 산업이다. 기상 상태는 수시로 변화하며, 지역에 따라 서로 다른 특성을 보인다. 또한 이러한 지역적 특성은 그 지역의 농산물의 재배환경에도 영향을 주게 된다. 이러한 특성 때문에 기상이 농업에 미치는 영향에 대해서는 그동안 많은 연구가 이루어져 왔다. 그러나 대부분의 연구가 농작물의 생산에만 초점이 맞춰져, 농작물이 생산에서 유통과정에서 기상요인이 미치는 영향을 통합적으로 살펴본 연구는 매우 부족한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 대표적인 농작물인 배추를 중심으로, 기상요인이 농산물 유통에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 배추는 우리 식탁에서 빼놓을 수 없는 식재료이면서, 기상 변화에 영향을 많이 받는 품목이다. 기상이변으로 배추의 가격이 폭등하게 되면 서민가계에 직접적으로 영향을 받게 된다. 이러한 관점에서 생산과 유통단계별로 기상요인이 배추에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 분석하였다. 본 연구에서는 배추의 재배유형별 거래량과 거래가격에 대한 실거래 데이터와 재배시기와 판매지역에 따른 기상요인에 대한 자료를 수집하여, 배추의 도매시장 거래량과 거래가격에 영향을 미치는 기상요인을 파악하고자 하였다. 연구 결과 배추의 생산지 기상요인보다 판매지역 기상요인의 영향이 배추의 거래량과 거래가격에 상대적으로 더 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다. 본 연구의 결과를 바탕으로, 향후 기상요인을 고려한 출하시기와 반입량에 대한 정책적 가이드라인을 제시하여 농산물 수급에 대한 선제적이고 체계적인 대응체제가 구축된다면, 기상변화에 민감한 농산물의 가격안정에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

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