Journal of the Korean earth science society (한국지구과학회지)

The Korean Earth Science Society (한국지구과학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Development of a Diagnostic Index on the Approach of Typhoon Affecting Korean Peninsula

한반도에 영향을 주는 태풍의 접근 진단 지수 개발

  • Choi, Ki-Seon (National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Kim, Tae-Ryong (National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration)
  • Received : 2011.05.16
  • Accepted : 2011.07.08
  • Published : 2011.08.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This study has developed the index for diagnosis on possibility that typhoons (TYs) affect Korea. This index is closely related to the strength of the western North Pacific high (WNPH), which is calculated as a difference in meridional wind between at the highest correlation area (around Korea) and at the lowest correlation area (sea southeast of Japan) through a correlation analysis between TC frequency that affects Korea and 500 hPa meridional wind. In low frequency years that selected from Korea affecting TC index, anomalous northeasterly is strengthened from Korea to the South China Sea because the center of anomalous anticyclonic circulation is located to northwest of Korea. Thus, TCs tend to move westward from the sea east of the Philippines to the mainland China. On the other hand, in high frequency years, anomalous southwesterly serves as steering flow that more TCs move toward Korea because the center of anomalous anticyclonic circulation is located to sea east of Japan. Consequently, this study suggests that if this index is calculated using real time 500 hPa meridional winds that forecasted by dynamic models during the movement of TCs, the possibility that TCs approach Korea can be diagnosed in real time.

이 연구는 우리나라 영향 태풍을 먼저 분류하고, 이후 경유하게 될 가능성을 진단하는 지수를 개발하였다. 우리나라 영향 태풍의 접근 진단 지수는 여름철에 북서태평양 고기압의 서쪽 가장자리의 발달강도를 표현하는 지수로서, 우리나라 영향 태풍의 빈도와 남북류 (500-hPa)의 강도사이의 상관관계에서 나타나는 양의 최대 상관지역(우리나라 부근)과 음의 최대 상관지역(일본 남동쪽 해상)간의 남북류의 속도 차이로 계산된다. 우리나라 영향 태풍 진단 지수로 추출된 우리나라 영향 태풍의 저빈도 해에는, 고기압성 순환 아노말리의 중심이 우리나라 북서쪽에 위치하기 때문에 우리나라로부터 중국 동해안과 남중국해까지 북동류의 성분이 강화되고, 태풍은 이에 따라 필리핀 동쪽해상으로부터 중국 동해안 및 중국내륙 쪽으로 서편하는 경향을 보였다. 반면에 고빈도 해에는 고기압성 순환 아노말리의 중심이 일본 동쪽 해상에 위치하기 때문에 동중국해 및 우리나라, 일본에서 유도된 남서풍이 더 많은 태풍을 우리나라 영역으로 접근시켰다. 결과적으로 태풍의 북상 동안 역학모델로부터 실시간으로 예측된 500 hPa 남북류를 이용하여 이 지수를 산출하면 태풍의 우리나라 접근 가능성을 진단할 수 있음을 이 연구는 제안한다.

Keywords

References

  1. Aberson, S.M., 1998, Five-day tropical cyclone track forecasts in the North Atlantic basin. Weather and Forecasting, 13, 1005-1015. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<1005:FDTCTF>2.0.CO;2
  2. Bell, G.D., Halpert, M.S., Schnell, R.C., Higgins, R.W., Lawrimore, J., Kousky, V.E., Tinker, R., Thiaw, W., Chelliah, M., and Artusa, A., 2000, Climate assessment for 1999. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 81, 1328 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<1328:CAF>2.3.CO;2
  3. Chia, H.H. and Ropelewski, C.F., 2002, The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific. Journal of Climate, 15, 2934-2944. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2934:TIVITG>2.0.CO;2
  4. Choi, K.S., Kang, KR, Kim, D.W., and Kim, T.R., 2009a, Prediction of tropical cyclone intensity and track using the artificial neural network method. Journal of Korean Earth Science Society, 30, 294-304. https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2009.30.3.294
  5. Choi, K.S. and Kim, B.J., 2007a, A simple introduction of extratropical transition of tropical cyclone (TC) and a case study on the latest three TCs: SHANSHAN (0613), YAGI (0614), and SOULIK (0618). Journal of Korean Earth Science Society, 28, 947-956. https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2007.28.7.947
  6. Choi, K.S. and Kim, B.J., 2007b, Climatological characteristics of tropical cyclones making landfall over the Korean Peninsula. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 43, 97-109.
  7. Choi, K.S., Kim, B.J., and Byun, H.R., 2009b, Relationship between Korean Peninsula landfalling tropical cyclones and interannual climate variabilities. Journal of Korean Earth Science Society, 29, 375-389. https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2008.29.5.375
  8. Choi, K.S., Kim, B.J., Kim, D.W., and Byun, H.R., 2010a, Interdecadal variation of tropical cyclone making landfall over the Korean Peninsula. International Journal of Climatology, 30, 1472-1483.
  9. Choi, K.S. and Kim, T.R., 2010b, Change of TC activity around Korea by Arctic Oscillation phase. Atmosphere, 20, 387-398.
  10. DeMaria, M. and Kaplan, J., 1999, An updated Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. Weather and Forecasting, 14, 326-337. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1999)014<0326:AUSHIP>2.0.CO;2
  11. Emanuel, K.A., 1986, An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part 1: Steady-state maintenance. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 43, 585-604. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<0585:AASITF>2.0.CO;2
  12. Emanuel, K.A., 1987, The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate. Nature, 326, 483-485. https://doi.org/10.1038/326483a0
  13. Emanuel, K.A., 2005, Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03906
  14. Fogarty, E.A., Elsner, J.B., and Jagger, T.H., 2006, Variations in typhoon landfall over China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 23, 665-677. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-006-0665-2
  15. Fraedrich, K. and Leslie, L.M., 1989, Estimates of cyclone track predictability. I: Tropical cyclones in the Australian region. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society, 115, 79-92. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711548505
  16. Gray, W.M., 1977, Tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan, 55, 465-482. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.55.5_465
  17. Gray, W.M., 1979, Hurricanes: Their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation. In Shaw, D.B. (ed.), Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans. Royal Meteorological Society, UK, 155-218.
  18. Gray, W.M., Landsea, C.W., Mielke Jr., P.W., and Berry, K.J., 1993, Predicting Atlantic seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 August. Weather and Forecasting, 8, 73-85. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1993)008<0073:PABSTC>2.0.CO;2
  19. Gray, W.M., Landsea, C.W., Mielke Jr., P.W., and Berry, K.J., 1992a, Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity 6-11 months in advance. Weather and Forecasting, 7, 440-455. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1992)007<0440:PASHAM>2.0.CO;2
  20. Gray, W.M., Landsea, C.W., Mielke Jr., P.W., and Berry, K.J., 1994, Predicting Atlantic seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 June. Weather and Forecasting, 9, 103-115. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009<0103:PABSTC>2.0.CO;2
  21. Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K.C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D., 1996, The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 77, 437-471. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2
  22. Kistler, R., Kalnay, E., Collins, W., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Kanamitsu, M., Kousky, V., van den Dool, H., Jenne, R., and Fiorino, M., 2001, The NCEP-NCAR 50-Year Reanalysis: Monthly Means CD-ROM and Documentation. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 82, 247-268. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0247:TNNYRM>2.3.CO;2
  23. Klotzbach, P.J. and Gray, W.M., 2004, Upgraded 6-11-month prediction of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity. Weather and Forecasting, 19, 917-934. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0917:UMPOAB>2.0.CO;2
  24. Klotzbach, P.J. and Gray, W.M., 2006, Causes of the unusually destructive 2004 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 87, 1325-1333. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-10-1325
  25. Korea Meteorological Administration, 1996, Typhoon White Book, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, 261 p.
  26. Landsea, C.W., Mielke Jr., P.W., and Mestas-Nunez, A.M., 1999, Atlantic basin hurricanes: Indices of climatic changes. Climate change, 42, 89-129. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005416332322
  27. Leftwich, P.W. and Neumann, C.J., 1977, Statistical guidance on the prediction of eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone motion. Part 2. NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS WR-125, p. 15.
  28. Morison, R.P., 2000, Australian REID CLIPER. Preprints, 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Fort Lauderdale, FL, American Meteorological Society, 494-495.
  29. Neumann, C.J., 1972, An alternate to the HURRAN tropical cyclone forecast system. NOAA Technical Memo NWS SR-62, p. 32.
  30. Neumann, C.J. and Randrianarison, E.A., 1976, Statistical prediction of tropical cyclone motion over the southwest Indian Ocean. Monthly Weather Review, 104, 76-85. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1976)104<0076:SPOTCM>2.0.CO;2
  31. Neumann, C.J. and Mandal, G.S., 1978, Statistical prediction of tropical storm motion over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. Indian Journal of Meteorology, Hydrology and Geophysics, 29, 487-500.
  32. Sall, S.M., Sauvageot, H., Gaye, A.T., Viltard, A., and Felice, P., 2006, A cyclogenesis index for tropical Atlantic off the African coasts. Atmospheric Research, 79, 123-147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2005.05.004
  33. Xu, Y. and Neumann, C.J., 1985, A statistical model for the prediction of western North Pacific tropical cyclone motion (WPCLPR). NOAA Technical Memo NWS-NHC 28, p. 30.

Cited by

  1. Decadal Change of Frequency in Korea Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Activity vol.33, pp.1, 2012, https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2012.33.1.49
  2. Possible Relationship between NAO and Western North Pacific Typhoon Genesis Frequency vol.34, pp.3, 2013, https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2013.34.3.224
  3. An Analysis of Model Bias Tendency in Forecast for the Interaction between Mid-latitude Trough and Movement Speed of Typhoon Sanba vol.34, pp.4, 2013, https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2013.34.4.303
  4. Multiple Linear Regression Model for Prediction of Summer Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific vol.34, pp.4, 2013, https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2013.34.4.336
  5. Possible Influence of Western North Pacific Monsoon on Tropical Cyclone Activity Around Korea vol.36, pp.1, 2015, https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2015.36.1.68
  6. Synoptic Analysis on the Trend of Northward Movement of Tropical Cyclone with Maximum Intensity vol.36, pp.2, 2015, https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2015.36.2.171
  7. The Intensification of Walker Circulation over the Past 15 Years from 1999 and Its Relation to TC Activity in the Western North Pacific vol.37, pp.6, 2016, https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2016.37.6.359