Atmosphere (대기)

Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Development of Tools for calculating Forecast Sensitivities to the Initial Condition in the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Unified Model (UM)

통합모델의 초기 자료에 대한 예측 민감도 산출 도구 개발

  • Kim, Sung-Min (Atmospheric Predictability and Data Assimilation Laboratory, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University) ;
  • Kim, Hyun Mee (Atmospheric Predictability and Data Assimilation Laboratory, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University) ;
  • Joo, Sang-Won (Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Shin, Hyun-Cheol (Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Won, DukJin (Korea Meteorological Administration)
  • 김성민 (연세대학교 대기과학과, 대기예측성 및 자료동화연구실) ;
  • 김현미 (연세대학교 대기과학과, 대기예측성 및 자료동화연구실) ;
  • 주상원 (기상청) ;
  • 신현철 (기상청) ;
  • 원덕진 (기상청)
  • Received : 2011.03.25
  • Accepted : 2011.06.19
  • Published : 2011.06.30
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Abstract

Numerical forecasting depends on the initial condition error strongly because numerical model is a chaotic system. To calculate the sensitivity of some forecast aspects to the initial condition in the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Unified Model (UM) which is originated from United Kingdom (UK) Meteorological Office (MO), an algorithm to calculate adjoint sensitivities is developed by modifying the adjoint perturbation forecast model in the KMA UM. Then the new algorithm is used to calculate adjoint sensitivity distributions for typhoon DIANMU (201004). Major initial adjoint sensitivities calculated for the 48 h forecast error are located horizontally in the rear right quadrant relative to the typhoon motion, which is related with the inflow regions of the environmental flow into the typhoon, similar to the sensitive structures in the previous studies. Because of the upward wave energy propagation, the major sensitivities at the initial time located in the low to mid- troposphere propagate upward to the upper troposphere where the maximum of the forecast error is located. The kinetic energy is dominant for both the initial adjoint sensitivity and forecast error of the typhoon DIANMU. The horizontal and vertical energy distributions of the adjoint sensitivity for the typhoon DIANMU are consistent with those for other typhoons using other models, indicating that the tools for calculating the adjoint sensitivity in the KMA UM is credible.

Keywords

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