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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Construction of the Regional Prediction System using a Regional Climate Model and Validation of its Wintertime Forecast

지역기후모델을 이용한 상세계절예측시스템 구축 및 겨울철 예측성 검증

  • Kim, Moon-Hyun (Climate Research Lab., National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA) ;
  • Kang, Hyun-Suk (Climate Research Lab., National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA) ;
  • Byun, Young-Hwa (Climate Research Lab., National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA) ;
  • Park, Suhee (Climate Research Lab., National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA) ;
  • Kwon, Won-Tae (Climate Research Lab., National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA)
  • 김문현 (국립기상연구소 기후연구과, 기상청) ;
  • 강현석 (국립기상연구소 기후연구과, 기상청) ;
  • 변영화 (국립기상연구소 기후연구과, 기상청) ;
  • 박수희 (국립기상연구소 기후연구과, 기상청) ;
  • 권원태 (국립기상연구소 기후연구과, 기상청)
  • Received : 2010.07.26
  • Accepted : 2011.03.14
  • Published : 2011.03.30
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Abstract

A dynamical downscaling system for seasonal forecast has been constructed based on a regional climate model, and its predictability was investigated for 10 years' wintertime (December-January-February; DJF) climatology in East Asia. Initial and lateral boundary conditions were obtained from the operational seasonal forecasting data, which are realtime output of the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) at Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Sea surface temperature was also obtained from the operational forecasts, i.e., KMA El-Nino and Global Sea Surface Temperature Forecast System. In order to determine the better configuration of the regional climate model for East Asian regions, two sensitivity experiments were carried out for one winter season (97/98 DJF): One is for the topography blending and the other is for the cumulus parameterization scheme. After determining the proper configuration, the predictability of the regional forecasting system was validated with respect to 850 hPa temperature and precipitation. The results showed that mean fields error and other verification statistics were generally decreased compared to GDAPS, most evident in 500 hPa geopotential heights. These improved simulation affected season prediction, and then HSS was better 36% and 11% about 850 hPa temperature and precipitation, respectively.

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References

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