산업공학 (IE interfaces)

  • 제24권2호
  • /
  • Pages.119-127
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  • 2011
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  • 1225-0996(pISSN)
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  • 2234-6465(eISSN)
대한산업공학회 (Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers)
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실시간 프로젝트 위험관리를 위한 베이지안 네트워크 모형의 개발

Developing a Bayesian Network Model for Real-time Project Risk Management

  • 김지영 (한양대학교 정보경영공학과) ;
  • 안선응 (한양대학교 산업경영공학과)
  • Kim, Jee-Young (Department of Information & Management Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • Ahn, Sun-Eung (Department of Industrial & Management Engineering, Hanyang University)
  • 투고 : 2010.12.07
  • 심사 : 2011.05.06
  • 발행 : 2011.06.01
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초록

Most companies have been increasing temporary work projects to maximize the usage of their resources. They also have been developing the effective techniques for analyzing and managing the state of the projects. In order to monitor the state of a project in real-time and predict the project's future state more accurately, this paper suggests the Bayesian Network (BN) as a tool for discovering the causes of project risk and presenting the failure probability of the project. The proposed BN modeling method with consideration of the Earned Value Management (EVM) method shows how to induce the predictive and conditional probability of the risk occurrence in the future. The advantages of the suggested model are (1) that the cause of a project risk can be easily figured out via the BN, (2) that the future value of the project can be sufficiently increased by updating relevant components of the project, and (3) that more credible prediction can be made in the similar and future situation by using the data obtained in current analysis. A numerical example is also given.

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참고문헌

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