상하수도학회지 (Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater)

  • 제25권2호
  • /
  • Pages.141-152
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  • 2011
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  • 1225-7672(pISSN)
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  • 2287-822X(eISSN)
대한상하수도학회 (The Korean Society of Water and Wastewater)
권호 표지

매설환경에 따른 배수관망의 누수발생원인 특성분석

Development of a Probability Model for Burst Risks of Water Main using the Analysis Methods of Leakage Type

  • 발행 : 2011.04.15
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초록

In this study, we extracted effective factors of pipe burst from the status data of water asset, operating data of pressure, volume and etc. and 7 years' pipe burst and repair records. The extracted factors were sorted by each attribution and then a statistical analysis was performed to generate a pipe burst probability function using the logistic regression model. As the result, material, diameter, length, laying year, pressure and road width affected to pipe burst significantly. Especially, in case of small diameter, laying year was most effective factor and in case of steel pipe, external loading was main cause of burst, and in case of cast iron, PE, PC, HP pipes, the deterioration of joint was main cause. The other side, as a result of Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test the models are turned out significant statistically. Also the classification criteria were determined to minimize the total cost from classification errors, when the predicted probability was more than 18% this pipe could have a chance of burst.

키워드

참고문헌

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