Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Future Korean Water Resources Projection Considering Uncertainty of GCMs and Hydrological Models

GCM과 수문모형의 불확실성을 고려한 기후변화에 따른 한반도 미래 수자원 전망

  • Bae, Deg-Hyo (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.) ;
  • Jung, Il-Won (Dept. of Geography, Portland State University) ;
  • Lee, Byung-Ju (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.) ;
  • Lee, Moon-Hwan (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.)
  • 배덕효 (세종대학교 공과대학 토목환경공학과) ;
  • 정일원 (포틀랜드주립대학교 지리학과) ;
  • 이병주 (세종대학교 공과대학 토목환경공학과) ;
  • 이문환 (세종대학교 공과대학 토목환경공학과)
  • Received : 2010.07.22
  • Accepted : 2011.05.12
  • Published : 2011.05.31
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Abstract

The objective of this study is to examine the climate change impact assessment on Korean water resources considering the uncertainties of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and hydrological models. The 3 different emission scenarios (A2, A1B, B1) and 13 GCMs' results are used to consider the uncertainties of the emission scenario and GCM, while PRMS, SWAT, and SLURP models are employed to consider the effects of hydrological model structures and potential evapotranspiration (PET) computation methods. The 312 ensemble results are provided to 109 mid-size sub-basins over South Korean and Gaussian kernel density functions obtained from their ensemble results are suggested with the ensemble mean and their variabilities of the results. It shows that the summer and winter runoffs are expected to be increased and spring runoff to be decreased for the future 3 periods relative to past 30-year reference period. It also provides that annual average runoff increased over all sub-basins, but the increases in the northern basins including Han River basin are greater than those in the southern basins. Due to the reason that the increase in annual average runoff is mainly caused by the increase in summer runoff and consequently the seasonal runoff variations according to climate change would be severe, the climate change impact on Korean water resources could intensify the difficulties to water resources conservation and management. On the other hand, as regards to the uncertainties, the highest and lowest ones are in winter and summer seasons, respectively.

본 연구에서는 GCM 및 유출모형의 불확실성을 고려하여 기후변화에 따른 미래 한반도 수자원의 변화를 전망하고, 그 결과에서 나타나는 불확실성을 평가하고자 하였다. 온실가스 배출시나리오와 GCMs의 불확실성을 고려하기 위해 IPCC AR4에 적용되었던 3개 시나리오(A2, A1B, B1)에 대한 13 GCMs 결과를 이용하였으며, 유출모형 구조 및 증발산량 산정방법에 따른 영향을 고려하기 위해 PRMS, SWAT, SLURP 모형을 선정하였고 각 모형별로 2～3개의 증발산량 방법을 고려하였다. 결과적으로 우리나라 109개 중권역 유역에 대해 312개의 결과가 제시되었으며, 이를 이용하여Gaussian kernel density function을 산정함으로써 평가결과의 앙상블 평균과 불확실성을 동시에 제시하였다. 분석 결과 여름철과 겨울철 유출량은 증가, 봄철은 감소할 것으로 전망되었다. 연평균유출량은 전체유역에서 증가할 것으로 전망되었으며, 공간적으로는 한강유역이 위치한 북쪽유역이 남쪽유역에 비해연 유출량이 더 크게 증가할 것으로 전망되었다. 연평균유출량의 증가는 여름철 유출량 증가에 따른 결과로, 기후변화의 영향은 한국에서 유출량의 계절편중을 심화시켜 수자원 관리를 더욱 어렵게 할 것으로 전망되었다. 평가결과에서 나타난 불확실성은 겨울철 유출량에서 가장 크고 여름철 유출량에서 가장 적은 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

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