Using Huff Model for Predicting the Potential Chiness Retail Market

This study aimed to predict retail sales of local markets in Jinan city of China with the Huff model. Using the Huff Model, we examined whether the predicted retail sales of local markets may be different in Jinan, China, from the department stores, supermarkets, shopping centers/shopping malls, and home appliance stores. The probability that a customer shops at location depends upon the store size and the travel time factors calculated by the Huff Model. We found that the predictedretail sales of shopping malls have a greater value than others. People who live in a mid-sized city may have easier access to any stores within the city boundary than people in metropolitan areas. Therefore, people in a mid-sized city are more sensitive to store size, because a bigger store size means greater opportunities, incentivizing consumers to travel further to competing stores after passing by nearer, smaller stores. This study has some limitations. First, the data is somewhat restricted in that the subject stores do not represent all of the stores in Jinan. Second, we cannot compare the estimated market share of the stores and the actual sales data. It is further suggested in this study that more databases be developed throughout such East Asian countries as Korea and Japan and that a different parameter λ value in the Huff Model be utilized for mid-sized cities.