Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Development of Flood Vulnerability Index Considering Climate Change

기후변화를 고려한 홍수취약성지표의 개발

  • Son, Min-Woo (Inha University, Ocean Science Technology Institute) ;
  • Sung, Jin-Young (Lotte Construction) ;
  • Chung, Eun-Sung (Seoul National University of Science & Technology, School of Civil Engineering) ;
  • Jun, Kyung-Soo (Sungkynkwan University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering)
  • 손민우 (인하대학교 해양과학기술연구소) ;
  • 성진영 (롯데건설) ;
  • 정은성 (서울과학기술대학교 건설공학부) ;
  • 전경수 (성균관대학교 사회환경시스템공학부)
  • Received : 2011.01.03
  • Accepted : 2011.03.14
  • Published : 2011.03.31
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Abstract

This study aims to develop the Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) and apply it to the Bukhan River Basin. A1B and A2 scenarios of CGCM3 of IPCC were adopted and SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model) was used to downscale the original data to the daily data. Driver-Presure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model was introduced to select all appropriate indicators for FVI and the daily rainfall-runoff model was simulated using HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran). Since FIV proposed in this study has a capability to quantify the potential flood vulnerability considering both present and future climate conditions, it is expected to be used for the comprehensive water resources and environmental planning.

본 연구에서는 기후변화 요소를 반영하여 홍수취약성지표 (Flood Vulnerability Index, FVI)를 개발하였고 이를 북한강 유역의 6개 중권역에 적용하였다. 기후변화 요소를 고려하기 위해 IPCC의 CGCM3 모형의 A1B와 A2 시나리오를 이용하였고 일단위로 축소화하기 위해 SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model) 모형을 이용하였다. 홍수취약성 인자를 선정하기 위해 지속가능성 평가모형인 추진력-압력-상태-영향-반응 (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response, DPSIR) 모형을 이용하였고 기후변화로 인한 홍수유출의 특성분석은 연속유출모의모형인 HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran)를 이용하였다. 본 연구에서 개발된 홍수취약성지수는 유역의 현상태 및 기후변화의 영향으로 인한 잠재적 취약성을 정량적인 하나의 지수로 간결하게 표현할 수 있어서 장기 수자원 및 유역관리 정책수립에 사용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

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