DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

A custom building deterioration model

  • Hosny, O.A. (The American University in Cairo) ;
  • Elhakeem, A.A. (AUC/KAUST, The American University in Cairo) ;
  • Hegazy, T. (University of Waterloo)
  • 투고 : 2010.05.02
  • 심사 : 2010.11.24
  • 발행 : 2011.03.25

초록

Developing accurate prediction models for deterioration behavior represents a challenging but essential task in comprehensive Infrastructure Management Systems. The challenge may be a result of the lack of historical data, impact of unforeseen parameters, and/or the past repair/maintenance practices. These realities contribute heavily to the noticeable variability in deterioration behavior even among similar components. This paper introduces a novel approach to predict the deterioration of any infrastructure component. The approach is general as it fits any component, however the prediction is custom for a specific item to consider the inherent impacts of expected and unexpected parameters that affect its unique deterioration behavior.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Butt, A.A., Shahin, M.Y., Feighan, K.J. and Carpenter, S.H. (1987), "Pavement performance prediction model using the Markov process", Transportation Research Record, Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1123, 12-19.
  2. Collins, L. (1972), An Introduction to Markov Chain Analysis, CATMOG, Geo Abstracts Ltd., Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich, U.K.
  3. DeStepano, P.D. and Grivas, D.A. (1998), "Method for estimating transition probability in bridge deterioration models", J. Infrastr. Syst., 4(2), 56-62. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(1998)4:2(56)
  4. Elhakeem, A. and Hegazy, T. (2005), "Improving deterioration modeling using optimized transition probability matrices for Markov chains", Proceedings of the 84th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, TRB, Washington, D.C., USA, January.
  5. Jiang, Y., Saito, M. and Sinha, K.C. (1988), "Bridge performance prediction model using the Markov chain", Transportation Research Record, Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No.1180, 25-32.
  6. Madanat, S., Karlaftis, M.G. and McCarthy, P.S. (1997), "Probabilistic infrastructure deterioration models with panel data", J. Infrastr. Syst., 1(3), 4-9.
  7. Madanat, S., Mishalani, R. and Ibrahim, W.H.W. (1995), "Estimation of infrastructure transition probabilities from condition rating data", J. Infrastr. Syst., 1, 120-125. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(1995)1:2(120)
  8. Morcous, G., Rivard, H. and Hanna, A.M. (2002a), "Case-based reasoning system for modeling infrastructure deterioration", J. Comput. Civil Eng.-ASCE, 16(2), 104-114. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0887-3801(2002)16:2(104)
  9. Morcous, G., Rivard, H. and Hanna, A.M. (2002b), "Modeling bridge deterioration using case-based reasoning", J. Infrastr. Syst., 8(3), 86-95. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2002)8:3(86)
  10. Puterman, M.L. (1994), Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, John Wiley and Sons Inc., New York.
  11. Sanders, D.H. and Zhang, Y.J. (1994), "Bridge deterioration models for states with small bridge inventories", Transportation Research Record, Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1442, 101-109.
  12. Shahin, M.Y., Nunez, M.M., Broten, M.R., Carpenter, S.H. and Sameh, A. (1987), ''New techniques for modeling pavement deterioration", Transportation Research Record, Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1123, 40-46.
  13. Sianipar, P.M.M. and Adams, T.M. (1997), "Fault-tree model of bridge element deterioration due to interaction", J. Infrastr. Syst., 3(3), 103-110. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(1997)3:3(103)
  14. Sobanjo, J.O. (1997), "A neural network approach to modeling bridge deterioration", Proceeding of the 4th Congress on Computing in Civil Engineering, ASCE, Philadelphia, PA, 623-626.