대한산업공학회지 (Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers)

  • 제37권4호
  • /
  • Pages.297-303
  • /
  • 2011
  • /
  • 1225-0988(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2234-6457(eISSN)
대한산업공학회 (Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

동북아시아 환적물동량 예측모델 연구

Forecasting Model of Container Transshipment Traffic Volume in Northeast Asia

  • 이병철 (농업기술실용화재단 식량원예사업팀) ;
  • 김윤배 (성균관대학교 시스템경영공학부)
  • Lee, Byoung-Chul (Crop and Horticulture Industry Team, Foundation of Agri. Tech. Commercialization and Transfer) ;
  • Kim, Yun-Bae (Department of Systems Management Engineering, Syungkyunkwan University)
  • 투고 : 2011.08.25
  • 심사 : 2011.11.15
  • 발행 : 2011.12.01
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

Major ports in Northeastern Asia engage in fierce competition to attract transshipment traffic volume. Existing time series analyses for analyzing port competition relationships examine the types of competition and relations through the signs of coefficients in cointegration equations using the transshipment traffic volume results. However, there are cases for which analyzing competing relationships is not possible based on the results of the transshipment traffic volume data differences and limitations in the forecasting of traffic volume. Accordingly, we used the Lotka-Volterra (L-V) model,also known as the ecosystem competitive relation model, to analyze port competition relations for the long-term forecast of South Korean transshipment traffic volume.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Kim, Y. B., Kim, J. B., and Lee, H. S. (2001), Forecasting of IMT- 2000 Market Size using Modified Multi-generation Lotka-Volterra Model, IE Interfaces, 14(1), 54-58.
  2. Jun, C. Y. (2007), A Study of Forecasting Model of Container Transshipment Traffic Volume in Korea, The Journal of Maritime Monthly, 272, 6-28.
  3. Han, C. H. and Uh, J. K. (2004), The Impact on the Korea's Transshipment Traffic Volume in According to the Development of North Chiness Ports, Korea Maritime Institute.
  4. Alfred, J. B. (2005), Optimising the Container Transshipmrnt Hub Location in Northern Europe, Journal of Transport Geography, 14(3), 195-214.
  5. Dekker, N. (2009), Annual Container Market Review and Forecast 2009/10, Drewry Shipping Consultants.
  6. Drewry Shipping Consultants (2008), Annual Review of Global Container Terminal Operators 2008, Drewry Shipping Consultants.
  7. Drewry Shipping Consultants (2008), Intra-Asia Container Trades 2008, Drewry Shipping Consultants.
  8. Kim, Y. B., Seo, S. Y., and Lee, Y. T. (1999), A Substitution and Diffusion Model with Exogenous Impact : Forecasting of IMT-2000 subscribers in Korea, Vehicular Technology Conference-Fall, 948- 952.
  9. Ocean Shipping Consultants (2006), East Asian containerport markets to 2020, Ocean Shipping Consultants.
  10. Pielou, E. C. (1969), An Introduction to mathematical ecology, Wiley Interscience.
  11. Ueda, T. (1990), A Study of a competitive Bass model which takes into account competition among firms, Journal of Operations Research Society of Japan, 33(4), 319-334.
  12. Yap, W. Y. and Lam, J. S. L. (2004), An interpretation of inter-container port relationships from the demand perspective, Maritime Policy and Management, 31, 337-355. https://doi.org/10.1080/0308883042000259729