IE interfaces (산업공학)

Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers (대한산업공학회)
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Heat Demand Forecasting for Local District Heating

지역 난방을 위한 열 수요예측

  • Song, Ki-Burm (Department of Systems Management Engineering, Sungkyunkwan University) ;
  • Park, Jin-Soo (Department of Systems Management Engineering, Sungkyunkwan University) ;
  • Kim, Yun-Bae (Department of Systems Management Engineering, Sungkyunkwan University) ;
  • Jung, Chul-Woo (Department of Systems Management Engineering, Sungkyunkwan University) ;
  • Park, Chan-Min (Department of Systems Management Engineering, Sungkyunkwan University)
  • 송기범 (성균관대학교 시스템경영공학과) ;
  • 박진수 (성균관대학교 시스템경영공학과) ;
  • 김윤배 (성균관대학교 시스템경영공학과) ;
  • 정철우 (성균관대학교 시스템경영공학과) ;
  • 박찬민 (성균관대학교 시스템경영공학과)
  • Received : 2011.08.30
  • Accepted : 2011.11.08
  • Published : 2011.12.01
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Abstract

High level of accuracy in forecasting heat demand of each district is required for operating and managing the district heating efficiently. Heat demand has a close connection with the demands of the previous days and the temperature, general demand forecasting methods may be used forecast. However, there are some exceptional situations to apply general methods such as the exceptional low demand in weekends or vacation period. We introduce a new method to forecast the heat demand to overcome these situations, using the linearities between the demand and some other factors. Our method uses the temperature and the past 7 days' demands as the factors which determine the future demand. The model consists of daily and hourly models which are multiple linear regression models. Appling these two models to historical data, we confirmed that our method can forecast the heat demand correctly with reasonable errors.

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References

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Cited by

  1. Short-Term Forecasting of City Gas Daily Demand vol.39, pp.4, 2013, https://doi.org/10.7232/JKIIE.2013.39.4.247