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Development of Diameter Growth and Mortality Prediction Models of Pinus Koraiensis Based on Periodic Annual Increment

정기평균생장을 이용한 잣나무 임분의 흉고직경 생장예측모델 및 고사예측모델의 개발

  • Kim, Seonyoung (Department of Forest Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Seol, Ara (Department of Forest Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Chung, Joosang (Department of Forest Sciences, Seoul National University)
  • Received : 2010.03.16
  • Accepted : 2010.11.29
  • Published : 2011.03.31

Abstract

The objective of this study was to improve the performance of the existing individual-tree/distantindependent stand growth model in predicting the growth of Pinus koraiensis forest stands. The parameters of diameter growth and mortality prediction models were estimated using periodic annual increment (PAI) of permanent plots and the performance of the models were compared with that of the existing ones using mean anuual increment (MAI). The diameter growth model includes crown ratio, potential diameter growth and modifier to compute for competitions of trees of a stand. In deriving the mortality prediction model, the parameters were estimated based on PAI which was also estimated as the function of MAI due to the lacking of permanent plot data. The results of this study showed that the newly-estimated functions based on PAI provide more realistic patterns in diameter growth of individual trees. The new approach using PAI in mortality model seems to overcome the over-estimate problem by the MAI-based model in estimating mortality of stand trees.

본 연구는 기존의 잣나무임분 거리독립 개체목 생장모델을 개선하기 위해 수행되었다. 직경생장함수 및 고사율함수의 매개변수들을 고정표본점의 정기평균생장량을 토대로 추정하고, 이 함수들의 특성을 기존의 총평균생장량을 토대로 추정한 모델과 비교하였다. 여기서 생장함수는 수관율함수, 잠재직경생장함수 및 임분을 구성하는 임목간 경쟁효과를 고려하기 위한 수정율함수를 의미한다. 고사율예측함수의 경우에는 고정표본점 자료의 한계로 인해 정기평균생장량 측정값을 구할 수 없어 대신 총평균생장량과의 관계식을 추정하여 대체하여 적용하였다. 연구결과 정기평균생장량을 토대로 하는 직경생장함수가 총평균생장량을 토대로 추정한 함수에 비해 개체목의 생장특성을 보다 현실적으로 반영하는 것을 보여주었다. 고사율함수의 경우, 총평균생장량을 적용하여 개발한 경우 고사율이 과대한 것으로 나타나는 문제가 있었으나 새로운 모델에서는 이 문제가 개선된 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

References

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